Saturday, November 28, 2015

NFL week 12 Sunday

Got off to a good start with a Bears win and cover as an underdog on Thanksgiving day.  All 32 teams are in action this week, so we have 12 more games on Sunday and of course 1 on Monday night.  I have some more matchups that I like.

New Orleans at Houston (-3):
New Orleans is entering this game off a bye while Houston is off big wins in it’s last 2 weeks following their bye week.  Houston has actually won 3 in a row, and the defense has finally stepped up, and performed to pre-season expectations the past few weeks.  Houston has the #8 rated defense, but more importantly it has the #5 rated pass defense.  We all New Orleans likes to pass the ball, and they enter this game with the #2 rated pass offense, so Houston will need to have that pass defense on alert.  In it’s past 3 wins, Houston has allowed less than 200 yards passing to, and that includes Cincinnati’s potent passing attack 2 weeks ago.  Speaking of passing, Houston has the #6 rated passing offense, and Hoyer is back this week after missing last week with a concussion.  DeAndre Hopkins has been playing like a man possessed this season, and he gets to feast on the #31 rated pass defense that the Saints have.  The Saints defense has been so bad they fired defensive coordinator Rob Ryan.  Go with the hot team, at home and lay the short field goal in this one.

New York Giants at Washington (+2.5):
You know the drill, spend the extra couple of bucks and get the full field goal for Washington +3.  We’re talking about a home dog in a divisional game.  When I saw this matchup I thought of 2 weeks ago when Washington hosted New Orleans and how they torched that shitty pass defense.  Guess what, the one team with a worse pass defense this year than New Orleans is the New York Giants who are allowing 311 passing yards per game.  Sure the Giants are coming off a bye, but it won’t be of much good in this one.  The Redskins are a completely different team at home, and are 4-1 straight up in home games this season where they’ve outscored their opponents by an average of 27-18 and out gained them by 80 yards.  The Giants are more of a passing team now, but the Redskins are only allowing 208 passing yards per game at home, and they held the Saints pass happy offense to under 200 passing yards.  Take the home divisional underdog in this one.

Miami at New York Jets (-4):
Another game featuring a New York team, but this time I’m going with the guys that play in Jersey.  Miami has really struggled all year, and while they’ve won 4 games, their statistical performance is very unflattering.  They have the #26 rated offense and defense, and are allowing 180 rushing yards to divisional opponents.  I took the Eagles a couple weeks back against Miami expecting them to run the ball 40 times.  They didn’t and Miami won the game.  My logic for taking the Jets is basically the same, except this time I have a proven run first team, and they sport the #5 rated defense in the league.  In divisional games this year the Jets have only allowing 286 yards of offense on average.  This is also the Dolphins 5th road game in the past 7 weeks.  I don’t care if these guys are professionals, that type of travel will affect your play.  I’m taking the Jets, and their defense at home in this one.


That’s 3 picks for Sunday.  Check back for a complete Monday Night game breakdown, and maybe a pick, not sure yet.  Good Luck this week.

No comments:

Post a Comment