It was
another 2-2 week last week in the NFL, leaving me 2 games under .500 for the
season. For some reason I can’t get the
success from the college ranks to spill over to the NFL. I’ve decided to do something different this
week. Obviously what I’ve been doing
hasn’t been that successful, I mean it’s kept me close to being a winner, but
really just getting me juiced each week.
Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results
is the definition of insanity, I don’t believe I’m insane, but the test results
are still pending from the doctor.
I talk about looking at the whole body of work, and not over
reacting to last weeks results too much as that usually leads to poor decisions
and less money in your pocket. That was
what initially got me to look at St. Louis this week, as they should get back
to controlling the game with the run, and not passing as much as they did last
week. However, they are starting a new
QB in Keenum this week, who is making a first start and it’s on the road. So that games out the window. Then I turned to Houston, who is coming off
the big win at home, and has a very good passing attack and improving
defense. Similar situation though as
Hoyer is probably out with a concussion and Yates is in, now they don’t look as
good. Romo is back behind center for the
Cowboys, so that should help provide some stability in their offense, but he’s
rusty as hell, and let’s be honest, do you have any idea which version of Miami
is going to show up? I don’t, and you
can’t trust a Jekyll/Hyde situation. Bradford
went down last week for the Eagles, and apparently he is dealing with a myriad
of injuries. In comes Sanchez, who
should benefit from getting all the first team snaps this week, but did anyone
else see him play last week? I don’t
want to say he single handedly lost me my bet last week, but he played a major
roll. Without having to worry about the
passing game, the Bucs defense can stack the box and take away the run.
The Redskins offense looked unstoppable last week, and now
they are getting 7.5 points on the road?
Interesting. However, the Saints
defense is probably the worst in the NFL, and they did fire the defensive
coordinator after the loss, so don’t read to much into that. Add in the terrible play they have on the
road and going against a strong Carolina defense and they don’t look so
desirable. It’s like a girl that you
meet in the club with the lights down low, she’s hot. Then you see her in normal lighting and it’s
like, what the fuck was I thinking.
Detroit got a huge win last week on the road at Green Bay, and are only
laying 1 point against Oakland. Seems to
good to be true, and in NFL gambling if it seems to good to be true it usually
is. San Diego has more injuries on it’s
offense than I can count. I don’t think
they even know who is playing on the offensive line for them. They haven’t been able to run the ball all
season, and are without best WR for the year.
So what does that leave us with?
Not a whole lot, but lets see what we can find.
Green Bay at Minnesota (-1):
Green Bay is a public team, so they will get the majority of
the bets each week regardless of how they’ve been playing. I won 2 weeks in a row going against the
Packers, first with the Broncos getting points at home, and then with Carolina
getting points at home. I backed off
going against them last week with Detroit, but was tempted and should’ve pulled
the trigger. Now I get the superior team
at home and only have to lay 1 point, which is basically a pick em game. Yes please.
This Packer defense is terrible.
They have more holes than swiss cheese.
When playing on the road this year the Packers are allowing 139 rushing
yards and 242 passing yards per game. Do
you think they will be able to slow down let alone stop Adrian Peterson? I don’t.
Peterson is playing like his old self and has gone for over 100 yards
rushing in his past 3 games, and actually went for over 200 last weeks at
Oakland. Bridgewater is playing well,
and is minimizing mistakes. On offense
the Packers have really struggled to get the run game going, and lately they
haven’t been attempting to run the ball hardly at all. Rushing attempts by Green Bay the past 4
weeks are 17, 21, 19 and 18. In the past
2 weeks they’ve had 109 passing attempts.
That’s not how you win in the NFL, and it’s certainly not how you win a
division game on the road. The Vikings
defense is rated #8 against the pass and #9 overall. Don’t look for the Packers to turn their woes
around this week, take the Vikings.
Tampa Bay (+6.5) at Philadelphia:
First things first, buy the half a point and take the full
touchdown. I’ve already talked about the
Eagles offensive woes, so let’s discuss Tampa Bay’s defense. Did you know they are rated #7 in the NFL on
defense? Also, the other 2 times they
were a touchdown or more underdog on the road they won the games outright? I’m looking at you Atlanta and New
Orleans. Sure those were division games,
but this team gets up for the games that matter. Winston has been playing better each week,
and is doing a good job of taking care of the football. They’ve been really running the ball,
averaging 30 attempts per game, and that helps take the pressure off Winston. The defense has also been strong, and keeping
them within striking distance each game.
The Eagles have struggle stopping the run this year, and that will play
into the Buc’s hands. Throw in the fact
that Sanchez is an interception machine, and I think we have the making of an
upset. Take the points.
Cincinnati at Arizona (-4.5):
Cincinnati was upset at home last week on Monday Night
Football as a big favorite. This team
struggles in the big games, and this is an even bigger game than last
weeks. They are traveling across the
country on short rest and have to go against the most complete team in the
NFL? Really? Arizona has the #1 rated offense overall, and
the #3 rated defense overall. At home
the defense is only allowing 94 rushing yards and 198 passing yards per
game. Their offense is averaging 131
rushing and 303 passing at home this season.
Oh and Carson Palmer get’s to face his old team, which usually adds a
little something to results as well.
Throw in the coaching edge that Arizona has over Cincinnati and the
Bengals are looking at back to back losses and a while bunch of question
marks. I’ll take the superior team and
lay the points at home.
Good luck this week, and check back for the Thanksgiving day
breakdown for all 3 games.
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