Off to a good start for the week standing at
2-0. There weren’t any games I liked on
Thursday or tonight, so we’re looking to Saturday for some value. I have 9 picks for Saturday, so let’s get to
it. My picks will have the points next
to them whether a favorite or underdog.
North Texas at Middle Tennessee (-23.5):
North Texas has been playing better since they fired their
head coach in the middle of the season.
And by better I mean they are covering the vegas number. They still aren’t a very good rated team
though, with the best thing they do is run the ball and that has a #85
rating. Oh and did I mention that I have
North Texas as the worst team in the country?
Cause they are. Also going
against North Texas is the fact that MTSU has the #33 rated rush defense and
are only allowing 122 yards per game at home this season. Finally North Texas is allowing over 480
yards per game on the road, and 305 passing yards per game in conference
play. MTSU is averaging 329 passing
yards per game and another 175 rushing yards per game in conference play. MTSU buries North Texas at home on senior
night.
Old Dominion at Southern Miss (-21):
Speaking of bad teams, here comes Old Dominion, bottom 10
rated team. Regular readers know I like
to pick on bottom teams, and Old Dominion has seen me go against them regularly
this year, with success. In ATS records
they are opposites with Southern Miss at 7-2 overall while ODU is 2-7. It’s also senior day at Southern Miss, so
they will want to end on a high note at home.
Southern Miss is actually a really good team, with the #11 rated offense
and #31 rated defense. They are more
efficient at passing the ball, but run a pretty balance offense averaging 210
rushing and 306 passing at home this year.
ODU’s best bet of keeping this tight will be to run the ball, but once
Southern Miss shuts down the passing game, they will stack the box and take
away the run as well. Southern Miss has
won it’s last 4 games by 22, 34, 21 and 55.
I have no reason to believe this game will be any closer.
California at Stanford (-11):
The difference between these schools is that one team can
play defense and the other team can’t.
Guess which team I’m going with, yep the one that can play defense. Stanford runs the ball very well, averaging
254 yards per game in conference play.
Cal counters that by allowing 204 yards per game rushing in conference
play, and 262 on the road. That doesn’t
bode well for them against Stanford. Don’t
over react to the Stanford loss last week to Oregon. They controlled that game, and had 14 more
first downs than the Ducks. Also,
Stanford QB had 2 fumbled snaps in the 4th quarter. Instead look for Stanford to make a statement
in this game, and a win in this game will move them into the conference
championship game. Look for Stanford to
put Cal away early, and control the game with the run.
Washington (-15) at Oregon State:
Staying in the PAC-12 for another game, going with the road
favorite here. The big reason for this
play is the fact that Oregon State is down to their 3rd QB of the
season, and he is making his first start.
That doesn’t really exude confidence when you already have an offense
that is struggling on the year with the #117 rated offense overall. They run the ball decently, but since they
can’t pass, and have a new QB playing, look for Washington to stack the box and
take away the run. Also, Oregon State
doesn’t play defense very well. They
have the #91 rated passing defense, and are allowing 290 yards per game in
conference play. That’s good news for
Washington who brings the #47 rated passing offense to the table. No that’s not a great rating, but it’s way
better than #91, and a 3rd string qb playing.
Rice (+3) at UTSA:
Battle of bad teams right here. I have Rice rated as about 1.5 points better
than UTSA, so depending on how many points you award them for home field really
impacts the amount of value. I gave UTSA
3.5 points for home field, so that leaves me with 1 point of value. But I also get a key number of 3, and when
you have 2 shitty teams facing off, it’s always better to take the better
shitty team and the points. Rice has won
all 3 games between these 2 teams by an average of 12 points per game. Neither team does anything well with Rice
having the better offense, but UTSA having the better defense. Take the points in a game that won’t be
televised anywhere.
Texas A&M at Vanderbilt (+6.5):
First buy the half point and get the full touchdown. I was a backer of Vanderbilt last week, and I’m
going with them here again this week. I
mean I’m getting a full touchdown of points with the home team and the #17
rated defense in the nation. What more
can you ask for? Throw in senior day for
Vandy, and Texas A&M still trying to figure out who should be their QB, and
I like my chances with this game. Vandy
is 7-2 ATS this year, and a perfect 4-0 at home. This is only Texas A&M’s 2nd
true road game as they had 2 neutral site games, and every other game was at
home. They didn’t cover the spread in
that road game, and are 3-6 ATS on the season.
As long as Vanderbilt protects the football they will have a chance to
win this game, and definitely cover the spread.
Colorado at Washington State (-15):
This is purely an instinctual play based on season
statistics. Washington State has the
best passing offense in the nation, and they are averaging 511 yards per game
at home this season. Colorado is
allowing 464 yards on defense on the road for the season. Do you think they will be able to slow down
the Cougars offense? I don’t. Colorado also played best game of season last
week against USC, and they have a red shirt freshman starting at QB for them
after their starter got hurt last week.
So we have a freshman QB making his first start on the road, and he’s
expected to keep up with the Cougars offense.
I don’t think so. Oh and I forgot
to mention that WSU is 8-1 ATS this season.
Notre Dame (-15) at Boston College:
Notre Dame just needs to win out and they are in the playoffs. Last week they didn’t look that great against
Wake Forest. It was almost like they
were going through the motions and playing not to lose rather than to win. Expect a different performance this week, as
coach Kelly will not allow his team to perform the same way in back to back
weeks. This won’t be an easy game for
them, as Boston College has the #1 rated defense in the nation. Notre Dame has the #26 rated offense though
and are averaging over 460 yards of offense overall. While I do have reservations about laying so
many points on the road against a strong defense, I just don’t see how Boston
College is going to score. Here are the
point totals for Boston College the past 8 weeks: 0, 17, 7, 0, 17, 14, 10 and
8. They are rated pretty close to the
worst offense in the nation with a #129 rating.
So yes they have a strong defense, but that defense isn’t scoring any
points, and their offense isn’t either.
Irish win big.
Louisiana Tech (-24) at UTEP:
I think this might be -24.5 in some places, so if it is buy
it down to -24, just for insurance purposes.
Remember a few games back where I was talking about bad teams in the Old
Dominion game? Well the same concept
applies here for UTEP, except they are the 3rd worst team in the
nation. They are rated #107 on offense
and #117 on defense. They are allowing
over 460 yards per game, and can barely crack 300 yards of offense. Louisiana Tech brings the #22 rated offense
thanks to their top 10 rated passing attack.
Louisiana Tech is also coming in off a bye, so the team is fresh and
ready to go. I was initially concerned
that La Tech would look ahead to the Southern Miss matchup it has next week and
allow the back door cover, but I don’t think the game will be close enough
entering the 4th qtr for that to happen.
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