NFL week 11 Monday Night

Well yesterday didn’t turn out as well as hoped.  After the dust settled from Sunday Night Football I was left at 1-2.  Arizona really screwed the pooch in that game, with multiple turnovers early and then letting the Bengals come back in the 4^th quarter and make it a game.  Unbelievable.  Add in the fact that everything went right for the Packers, and nothing went right for the Vikings, and it ended ugly.  The lone bright spot was Tampa Bay not only covering, but absolutely destroying the Eagles at home.  Anyways, I’m breaking down the Monday night game, and I’ll see if I talk myself into a pick or not.

Buffalo at New England (-7.5):

New England continues to be a public team, and people will bet them no matter what the line is.  That’s seen as 67% of the bets for this game have been placed on New England, yet the line has come down from the opening of -8 at some places.  It’s an interesting number though as 5 of 9 New England games this season have been decided by 8 points or fewer.  Buffalo has extended rest for this game as they played on Thursday night in week 10.  This is also a rematch from week 2 game played in Buffalo.  A game in which the Bills were actually favored by 2 points, but of course New England won by 8.  I find it odd that the line opened at the same margin of victory as the last game between these teams, but a switch in venue with New England being the home team.  It should’ve been adjusted for home field.  Perhaps the injury to Edelman is keeping this line down.  The Patriots have had huge success on Monday nights at home over the past few seasons outscoring opponents 121-20.  That’s nothing to sneeze at to be sure. 

A look at the point totals show that it opened at 49.5, and has seem a steady stream of money coming in on the under, with the line now at 48.  Did you know that the under in division games in week 11 or later with a total of 44.5 or more has a 62% win rate?  No?  Well now you do.  The line moves on the total suggest the sharp money is playing that same angle.  Usually the gambling public bets the over, so with line moves like this even with the public playing the over, suggests there is sophisticated cash on the under, and lots of it. 

I’m passing on any side in this game, including the totals.  I would prefer to get under 48.5 and might buy the extra half point, but I’m not going to chase a bet just to make one.  Rather, if I was to play this game, I would go with a 7 point teaser.  You can actually play the 7 point teaser in multiple ways.  You could take New England down to basically a pick em, or you could get Buffalo over 2 td’s at 14.5.  Either of those with adding 7 to the under to get 55 points there seems like easy money.  Hell I bet you could tease Buffalo and New England together, and as long as the Patriots win by 14 points or less you’re a winner.  Lots of choices out there.  No matter what decision you make, good luck.  Check back later for a break down of the 2 college football games on Tuesday night.