Last
week, I was dealing with a bit of a hangover and not enough sleep. I could’ve dug through and found a few more
games, but I wanted to stick with 1 game, and Denver came through winning
outright as an underdog at home. Here we
are in a new week with new opportunities.
Remember, the key to success in the NFL is to have a long term memory,
not a short term. Don’t base too much
emphasis on the week before, but rather regard the whole body of work. Don’t be a stupid public gambler, and just
lay the favorites all the time, especially huge line, like double digit
dogs. Sure you might cover ever now and
then, but in the end, taking a double digit dog is going to win you money more
times than not. Now I’m not saying run
out and grab Washington, but don’t just blindly take New England either. It’s all about research. Here are this weeks picks.
Miami at Buffalo (-3):
I like Miami in this game.
Sure they have a head to head match up already this year, but don’t read
to much into that game. Miami has
changed since then, and to a certain extent so has Buffalo. Taylor is expected to be back under center
for Buffalo this week, which will help them, and they are coming off a
bye. They are banged up at running back,
not sure who is going to play there, and the TE Clay got his revenge against
his old team in the first game. Miami
has played like a team transformed since they fired Philbin. In fact, they will look to get revenge in
this rematch. Miami has had some
struggle getting the run game going, but the passing game has solidified in the
last 3 weeks going for 254, 255, and 255.
They did run all over Houston 2 weeks ago, but everybody runs over
Houston, so don’t put to much stock in that one. Finally, Miami hits a key number in 2 of my 6
ratings systems, and show value in 4 of the 6.
I’m taking the points here in a tough battle.
Green Bay (-3) at Carolina:
Last week the one game was Denver as an underdog at home
against Green Bay. This week I’m taking
another home underdog against Green Bay.
While Denver has what I think is the best defense in the NFL, and as I
said last week Green Bay hadn’t really been tested on offense up to that point,
I think Carolina has the second best defense in the NFL. They really get after the run, and the
passing defense has improved. Carolina
had a problem with turnovers last week on offense, but managed to hang on for
the win in overtime. That was a game
that shouldn’t have been close. I feel
that Carolina took foot off gas in 4th and allowed the Colts back
in. And just like I said last week,
Green Bay defense hasn’t been that great this year, and they are allowing 142
rushing yards per game on the road.
Carolina is showing value in 5 of my 6 ratings systems, with the 5th
system having this line set perfectly.
Of the 5 lines that Carolina is favored in, the most important one is a
key number. There is something appealing
about home dogs of a field goal, and I’ll take this one. Green Bay is a public team, so there is a
chance this goes higher and you get more points. I’m taking a wait and see approach.
NY Giants (-2) at Tampa Bay:
Yes, I know that I just got done talking about home dogs,
and how awesome they are in the last game, but that doesn’t apply to Tampa
Bay. Yes, Winston is improving as the
season goes, but most of that is from less interceptions. Now I’m not sure if he is making better
decisions or if it’s because they are running the ball more. I do know they are running the ball a lot
more, or at least better, and that always helps a young qb. The defense is playing very good at home, but
they are vulnerable to the passing game.
Sure they slowed down Atlanta’s offense on the road last week and pulled
the upset, but that was largely from winning the turnover battle by 4, and they
still gave up 395 yards passing. The
Giants are slinging the ball well, averaging 316 yards per game on the season,
and Eli did throw for 329 last week against New Orleans. The Giants have been in every game this year,
and if they could’ve closed out a couple more a little better they would have a
much improved record. Every time they’ve
had a disappointing week though, they bounce back stronger the next week, and I
have no reason to believe they won’t do the same here. They are showing value in 4 of my 6 ratings
systems, and hit a key number in 1 of those 4.
I’m taking the chance and backing the road favorite here.
Denver (-5) at Indianapolis:
What’s this, another road favorite, and I’m taking
them? Forget everything I said about
value on home dogs, except in the Carolina game. Manning gets to return to Indianapolis who is
struggling this year. Sure they came
back and covered last week against Carolina, but I think that was more of the
Panthers taking the foot off the gas rather than the Colts taking charge in the
4th. Denver has the best
defense in the NFL, and they don’t stop late or take plays off. They won’t allow this Colts team to get back
into it in the 4th. For the
Colts, Hilton has been hobbled all week, so he might not play in this
game. Both teams offenses are rated
about the same, in the middle of the pack that is the NFL. But again I’m going back to defense. That is where there is a difference. Denver is rated #4 against the rush, #1
against the pass and #1 overall. The
Colts are rated #28 against the run, #27 against the pass and #29 overall. Look for the Broncos to get the run game
going this week, and for Manning to continue to have success, who has played
much better as of late, and is really gelling with his receiving corps now.
I also have a play for Monday night football, but I’m going
to wait on posting that until tomorrow.
Good luck today.
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