College football week 10 Tuesday

There wasn’t a Tuesday game last week, but there is one tonight, and should be for the rest of the season.  We also get a Wednesday night game this week, so 7 full days for football this week.  Just what the doctor ordered.  As usual I will break down each of the week day games, starting with tonights game.  Last week I went 2-1 on Thursday/Friday and 9-4 on Saturday for an 11-5 record for the week.  That puts the season record at 47-39-4, and finally above that pesky 53% win rate needed to make money.  Anyways, let’s get to the game, it should be a good one.

Northern Illinois at Toledo (-7):

Two Saturdays ago, I was a backer of Toledo for one of my picks.  It wasn’t pretty early, but in the second half Toledo stormed back against UMass, and actually were covering with a few minutes to go in the 4^th.  Then UMass scores so they are covering, but then UMass goes for the onside kick.  Toledo recovered and went down to score for the cover, and I got lucky.  I’ve actually backed Toledo a few times this season and they haven’t let me down yet.  They haven’t let anybody down as they are undefeated ATS at 7-0 this season.  Northern Illinois has done well themselves as I have them at 6-1 ATS on the season, with the only non cover coming as a road favorite.

This is a big game for the MAC as both are jockeying to win the West Division, and ultimately the MAC championship.  Toledo also has a chance to be the group of 5 bowl bid, but they need to win out in order for that to happen.  I believe this game will come down to my favorite stat, running the football.  Northern Illinois has struggled stopping the run this year, especially on the road where they are allowing 161 yards per game.  That works out well for Toledo who average 214 per game overall and that jumps up to 269 in conference play.  If you flip the script, Northern Illinois does have a slightly better rushing attack, but Toledo’s run defense is much better.  Both teams do a good job of protecting the ball too, with Toledo at +3 on the season and Northern Illinois at +2.

I have this game rated at Toledo -7 to -7.5 on a neutral site, so any value on the line depends on how you grade home field advantage for Toledo.  Finally, Northern Illinois has won the last 5 games in this matchup, but have always had the superior team.  This year, Toledo has the better team, they get them at home, and they are looking for 2 things; revenge and making a statement.  I fully believe that the first half last week against UMass was an eye opener for Toledo, and they put together a full 60 minute performance this week.  Spend the extra couple of bucks and buy this down to Toledo -6.5.  That’s what I did, and I’m making this a pick on the week at Toledo -6.5.