NFL week 10

The Bears came through for me on Monday Night football last week, giving me a 3-2 record for the week.  I’m still 2 games under .500 though for the season, so plenty of room for improvement.  I want to remind everyone not to be over reactive to last weeks results.  The NFL is a parity league, and you need to judge the teams by their whole body of work so far, and no knee jerk reactions.  It’s hard to do sometimes I know, especially when last week is so fresh in your mind.  With that said I have 4 games for you this week that I think provide the best opportunity for making some money. 

Carolina at Tennessee (+4):

I liked this line a whole lot better at +5.5, but getting the points over a field goal is still the way to go, especially with the home team.  The public money is on the Panthers, with the win over Green Bay last week fresh in their heads, and the fact that they are undefeated and the Titans have only won 2 games.  But how is it that the majority of the bets are on the Panthers, yet the line has moved against them?  That’s an indicator of the sharp money being on the home dog, and a good sign for us.  But like I said last week in backing the Panthers, the Packers are over rated, and the defense is porous.  Tennessee’s defense is actually very strong, in fact it’s the #6 rated defense in the NFL.  The Titans offense is better when Mariotta plays, and interim head coach Mularky is a power offense kind of guy, which fits this teams personnel much better.  The Panthers have struggled in putting teams away, and seem to only play for 45 minutes.  It’s a 60 minute game, so that’s not good.  I’m going with the formula that wins in NFL gambling, home dog with the better defense.  Give me the Titans and the points.

New Orleans at Washington (-1):

Yes, Washington struggled last week on the road at New England.  But who doesn’t struggle there?  That still doesn’t change the fact that Washington has the #9 rated passing defense in the NFL, and are even better against the pass at home allowing 213 yards per game.  New Orleans is a one dimensional offense, so this is strength versus strength in the passing game this week, and will be interesting to see which side comes out on top.  In this instance, I’m going with the Redskins, simply because the Saints cannot stop anyone on defense.  They have the #31 rated defense in the NFL, that’s 2^nd to last.  They are allowing 313 passing yards per game on the road, and 125 rushing.  Add in the fact that they can’t run the ball, which means they can’t control the clock, and you’re going to have a tired defense on your hands.  Oh and Jackson is back for Washington this week, and should provide the deep threat/explosive play they’ve been missing all season.  Look for the Redskins to take advantage of the bad Saints defense and jump start their offense this week.

Miami at Philadelphia (-6.5):

When Philadelphia runs the ball, they play much better.  In 3 of their 4 losses they have rushing attempts of 16, 17 and 18.  That’s not how you win in the NFL.  In their 8 other games they have rushing attempts of 39, 34, 37, 30 and 35.  Now that’s how you win in the NFL, and they’ve gone 4-1 in those 5 games with the only loss coming to the Panthers on the road.  In comes Miami, who played well in the first 2 weeks since they fired Philbin, but have reverted back to their normal selves that past 2 weeks.  Miami can’t stop the run, in fact they have the #31 rated rushing defense in the NFL, and are allowing 142 yards per game.  As an added bonus this will be the Dolphins 4^th road game out of their past 5, and their 3^rd straight game on the road.  Look for the 3 headed monster of Murray, Mathews and Sproles to run up, down and around this Dolphins defense all game.  Eagles win big.

Arizona (+3) at Seattle:

This is the Sunday night game.  Arizona is coming off the bye, and should be healthy/rested/ready to fucking go.  This is going to be a battle, as we have the #2 (Seattle) and #3 (Arizona) defense facing off in this game.  With both defense performing so similar, you have to go with the team with the better offense.  In this case it’s also the team that is getting points, Arizona.  The Cardinals have the #3 rated offense, while the Seahawks have the #19.  Sure Seattle can run the ball well, but they haven’t done very good in the passing game this season.  Part of the problem is that they haven’t been able to protect the quarterback, and are last in sacks allowed.  On the other side, Arizona has done a master piece of work in keeping Palmer upright.  Add in the resurrection of Fitzgerald with the move to the slot, and Chris Johnson finally having running lanes, and this is a team that can compete for the title.  Take the points in this slug fest as it should be a tight battle the whole way.

Good luck this week.  I don’t really like the Monday night game this week, as that’s a lot of points to lay.  We’ll see how the line moves, and maybe join into the fun later, but right now it’s looking like a pass.