College football week 13 Tuesday

It’s Tuesday, and that means it’s time for MACtion football.  As we’ve come accustomed to the past few weeks we have 2 MAC games tonight.  Then we are forced to go without football on Wednesday, back with 2 college games on Thursday (Turkey day), and then a full slate of 15 games on Friday.  The last few weeks I’ve been breaking down every weekday game at the college level, but I won’t be able to do that this week as 15 games is simply to much to write about.  I will provide complete game insights for the 2 games on Thursday, and then another post with my Friday picks, if any, and of course my Saturday picks will come after that.  It’s going to be a busy week.  Also, if you haven’t had a chance to check out my college basketball picks yet, updated daily, feel free to give them a look.  It’s a slightly different process than football.  You can find those picks at http://jmgbasketball.blogspot.com/.  Alright, enough of that, let’s get to some football.

Bowling Green (-22) at Ball State:

Last week Bowling Green was upset in it’s loss to Toledo at home, and Ball State couldn’t slow down the Ohio offense.  In fact Ohio had 608 total yards against Ball State last week, that’s a lot of offense.  However, that’s not unusual for the Ball State defense as opponents are averaging 512 yards of offense against them this year.  That spells trouble for them again this week as Bowling Green comes to town and are averaging 565 yards per game.  So we have a defense that can’t stop anybody going up against an offense that can’t be stopped.  Well they were slowed down last week against Toledo, but Ball State isn’t Toledo, so don’t expect that to happen in back to back weeks.  While it is tempting to lay the heavy chalk with Bowling Green in this game I’m going to pass, as the Bowling Green defense hasn’t really performed that great themselves this year.  In fact they are allowing 436 total yards this season.  I’m not sold on Ball State being able to keep pace with the high powered Falcons offense though as they only have the #80 rated offense in the nation.  I can see Bowling Green winning this game anywhere between 14 and 35 points.  This game will probably be a shoot out, so if you like points, you’ll love this game, but I’m sitting it out completely.

Ohio at Northern Illinois (-13.5):

Speaking of offense, here are 2 more offensive minded teams, and both have really turned it on the last couple of weeks.  I’m perplexed as to why this line is so high.  I have both of these teams rated fairly close to each other on both offense and defense.  Northern Illinois has the #35 rated offense and the #55 rated defense.  Ohio has the #44 rated offense and the #52 rated defense.  NIU is averaging 452 yards per game and allowing 381 yards.  Ohio is averaging 428 yards per game and allowing 378.  Like I said, very similar.  Both teams have played well ATS, but Northern Illinois has had more success cashing tickets for it’s backers this year.  However, that is all based on season averages.  When you look at the road/home splits, it tells a completely different story, as Ohio doesn’t travel very well, and NIU is much better at home.  Look at these stats, on the road Ohio’s offense drops to an average of 405 yards per game, and the defense allowance jumps up to 428 yards per game.  Sure the offensive average only drops 23 yards, but the defense allows an additional 50 yards per game, that’s a scoring drive.  NIU on the other hand has it’s offensive production jump to 604 yards per game, that’s an additional 152 yards of offense.  The defense hasn’t performed as well at home, but that’s mostly because they haven’t had to.  Finally in the 3 conference road games that Ohio has played in this year they beat Akron (not a good team) 14-12, lost to Buffalo 17-49 and lost to Bowling Green 24-62.  That doesn’t necessarily exude confidence in this team.  I’m going to pass on this game as well.

So no football action for Tuesday night, but remember sometimes the best bets are the ones you don’t make.  Check back for the Thursday game breakdowns, Friday picks and of course my Saturday selections.