College Football week 12 Thur and Fri

Central Michigan held on for a 13 point victory last night and the cover, moving me to 2-0 for the week.  We have a light Thursday and Friday schedule again this week with 2 games each night.  I’m going to provide insights for all 4 games.  Not sure about a pick yet, maybe I’ll talk myself into one. 

Thursday

East Carolina (-14.5) at Central Florida:

Central Florida isn’t having a magical season.  They have struggled all year, and are in the bottom 15 of the national ratings.  In fact they are still searching for their first win on the season.  I wish I could say they’re getting better each week, but that would be a lie.  They have the #128 rated offense, averaging less than 300 yards per game.  They can’t run the ball at all, averaging less than 80 yards per game.  The defense isn’t much better with a #105 rating, and allowing nearly 450 yards per game.  That’s all good news for visiting East Carolina, who has seen some woes of their own this season.  They do have a top 40 rated passing attack, but that’s about the only positive they got going for them.  Their defense isn’t much better than Central Florida’s allowing nearly 420 yards per game.  Based on the stats and my computer ratings, I don’t expect ECU to cover this game.  But I just can’t pull the trigger on backing one of the worst teams in the nation, even if they are getting over 2 td’s at home.  Pass on this one.

Louisiana Monroe at Texas State (-6.5):

Speaking of bad teams, here are 2 more right here.  In fact these 2 teams are battling to not finish last in the Sun Belt Conference.  La Monroe is a bottom 10 team in the nation, while Texas State is a bottom 20, so not much separation between them.  ULM is rated #122 on offense and #101 on defense.  Texas State is even worse on defense with a #128 rating, but on offense they are much improved at #50.  While I expect Texas State to be able to run their way to victory, I’m not sold on the fact that they will be able to win by a td.  With how bad these defenses are, I expect a back and forth game, with whoever scores last winning.  That doesn’t mean take the points though, that means pass on this game.  In fact don’t even watch this game.  Just pretend that it’s not even happening and go on with your life.

Friday

Cincinnati (-2.5) at South Florida:

If you haven’t had a chance to watch Cincinnati play this year, you should tune in this game, as they are a delight to watch offensively.  They seem to move the ball with ease, and have done it with 2 different QB’s this year.  Kiel has been back a couple of weeks now after missing 3 games with injury.  Not that Hayden didn’t perform well, he did, they just couldn’t pull out the close ones with him leading the way.  But the future of Cincinnati looks bright in his hands.  South Florida has been a team that has improved each week, especially offensively, and that has been capped off with a brilliant game last week against Temple.  They did have Temple at home though, so I wouldn’t read to much into it, as my regular readers would know I’ve harped about Temples inability to stop the run while playing on the road.  Cincinnati has the better offense, and are averaging well over 500 yards per game.  South Florida has the better defense though, and at home are holding opponents to under 100 rushing yards per game.  While my computer says the value in this game is on South Florida, it’s only due to the home field advantage adjustment.  I’m curious to see how this defense stacks up against such a potent offense, as this will be the best offense they face on the season.  I’m passing on this game, but if you need some action between Thursday and Friday I would suggest taking the home team that is defensive minded and getting the points, USF.  But you’re better off saving the chips for Saturday as there is no telling how this one will shake out.

Air Force at Boise State (-12):

I was expecting a better showing out of Boise State last week against New Mexico.  They were coming in off a bye, so they had 2 weeks to prepare for the option offense.  The score doesn’t reflect the stats though, but the scoreboard is all that matters and Boise blew it.  In comes Air Force, another option team, and Boise should definitely be prepared for this style of play this week.  I was a backer of Air Force last week as a home dog to Utah State, and they paid the piper with an outright win.  Air Force boasts the #3 rushing attack in the nation, unfortunately they are going up against the #4 rated rush defense that Boise brings to the table.  At home this year, Boise is only allowing 90 rushing yards per game at home.  It’s the proverbial immovable object against an unstoppable force, and the winner of that battle will probably win this game.  While I feel deep down in my hear that Air Force will keep this close, I’m not willing to wager my hard earned money on it.  Pass on this game.

So no picks for Thursday or Friday, that will leave me at 2-0 heading into the weekend and on a 9-0 streak.  Let’s hope the luck continues on Saturday.  Check back tomorrow for my weekend picks.