Last week was a mixed week, as I ended up going 1-2 on the weekday games, and then 5-5-1 on Saturday for a weekly total of 6-7-1. This is another full week of games, with 2 tonight, 2 on Wednesday and then the normal slate on Thursday andFriday. Here is a breakdown of the 2 games tonight.
Toledo (-4) at Central Michigan:
Both teams are playing well in conference play, and Toledo only lost once this year. Of course that win was last week with me backing them against Northern Illinois. So Toledo is playing for the second Tuesday in a row, while Central is coming off a bye. Toledo did a great job of running the ball last week, which I thought would’ve been enough to get the W and the cover. They probably won’t be as lucky this week as CMU has the #32 rush defense in the nation, and are only allowing 131 yards per game. Toledo’s defense is good against the run, but the Chippewa’s don’t run the ball, they are a passing team, and they have a top 20 passing attack, which doesn’t seem good for Toledo who has the #86 passing defense. Oh and did I mention that last week Northern Illinois had starting QB and top WR out in the second half, and they still came from behind to beat Toledo. Does that tell you how bad this Toledo passing defense is? Finally, both teams have performed very well ATS this year with identical records. CMU is undefeated as an underdog ATS in 5 games, and in the 3 games at home this year. I’m passing on this one, but leaning towards CMU as I don’t think Toledo will bounce back that great after last weeks disappointing loss.
Kent State at Ohio (-7):
Ohio has the slight advantage on offense, while Kent State has the advantage on defense. Neither team can run the ball very well and are rated 93rd and 94th in the nation. Kent State’s passing offense is even worse at 120 ranking, while Ohio enjoys a ranking of 39. On Defense, Kent State has the 23rd rated defense in the nation, being especially tough against the run. Unfortunately that won’t help them much here. I underestimated that defense last week with a play on Buffalo, no I didn’t include it in my picks, yes I do bet on more games than included here. I won’t underestimate them again this week, but since both teams are coming off short rest, Ohio played last Wednesday and Kent State played last Thursday, I’m going to pass on this game. Taking the defensive minded team would be the way to go, but on 5 days rest and having to travel with a bunch of 18-21 year olds, I’m going to save my chips for another day.
Check back tomorrow for Wednesday games, and of course the next day for Thursday, etc.
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