College football week 12 Tuesday

Wow, we capped off a great week last week on Saturday.  The weekday picks ended up going 1-2, but Saturday was a 7-0 day for an 8-2 week.  Now we’re starting to cook with fire.  Week 12 kicks off on Tuesday night with some more MACtion play as there are 2 MAC games on both Tuesday and Wednesday.  Today I’m talking the Tuesday games, so lets get to it.

Toledo at Bowling Green (-7):

This line was BG -6.5 a couple of days ago, and then it went up to 8 but now is back to 7.  That’s a pretty good move.  These 2 teams are very close to each other, and on a neutral field I would make this line Bowling Green -1.5, so you’re getting plenty of value on Toledo even after adjusting for home field for Bowling Green.  This is only the second time all season that Toledo is an underdog, and that was at Arkansas where they pulled the outright upset.  Toledo has also won the past 5 games in this series.  It will be interesting to see how motivated Bowling Green will be in this game since they locked up the east division in the MAC with last weeks win, and will appear in the MAC title game no matter what.  Both teams have played very well against the spread this year, with Toledo being 8-1 while BG is 8-2.  This is normally a spot where I would grab the points, but with the strength of Bowling Green’s offense being the passing game, and pass defense being the biggest weakness of Toledo’s team, I’m going to sit this one out. 

Ball State at Ohio (-9.5):

Ball State is coming in off a much needed bye after getting dismantled by Western Michigan the week prior to that.  Ball State is also included in a 25 list, but unfortunately for them it’s the bottom 25 in the nation.  They have also performed poorly against the vegas number so far this season.  Ohio has been up and down this season, but managed to get a much needed win last week against Kent State at home in the middle of the week.  They should find some success on offense again this week as Ball State is rated #120 on defense in the nation, they struggle against the run and the pass allowing 204 rushing yards per game and 300 passing yards per game.  The passing yards allowed improve slightly on the road, but that benefit is quickly lost by the additional 60 rushing yards they allow.  Ohio has done a great job of running the ball in their last 2 games with 299 2 weeks ago and 333 last week.  Look for them to keep that momentum going this week, and run all over Ball State.  And just like that I talked myself into taking Ohio, making it my first pick of the week.

Check back tomorrow for Wednesday games.