The band marches on with another post for
week 11. The past couple of weeks we
have been really loaded up with Thursday and Friday night games, and I’ve
broken those 2 nights out into separate posts.
This week we only have 3 games between those nights, so I’m back to one
post to cover both. I gave a pick in my
Wednesday game post, and I was a winner so starting off 1-0 on the week. I do have a pick that I like BIG for Thursday
night, and possibly another pick in the Friday night game. So without further ado, here we go.
Thursday
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech (-3.5):
The annual battle of the Tech schools. It’s a tradition, like the Rose Bowl. This year feels a little different though, as
Frank Beamer has announced his retirement at the end of the season. I’ve had trouble getting a grip on this
Virginia Tech team all season, and have not played them very well. They have not played up to pre-season
expectations, and now who knows how the team will react to the news that it’s
head coach is walking away after the season.
Will they fight harder for him to get him one more bowl game and send
him out with a winning record. Will the
continue to underperform as they have all season. These are the questions that plague me as I
look at this game. Honestly the stats
and YTD performance aren’t going to matter (if they did I would be all over
Georgia Tech in this one as VT struggles to stop the run). I’m staying away from this game, and I
recommend that you do too. In fact I’m
not touching another Virginia Tech game all season. Moving on.
Louisiana Lafayette at South Alabama (-3):
I don’t understand this line at all. Even after giving South Alabaman 3 points for
home field advantage I still believe that La Lafayette should be the favorite
in this game. Are these teams bad? Yes, both of them are, but South Alabama is
bottom 10 in the nation bad, while La Lafayette is only bottom 30 in the nation
bad. I’ve had success in playing
mismatched lines of 2 bad teams facing off this year, but this one takes the
cake. This game really comes down to 2
things; 1) running the football and 2) stopping the run. Lafayette is good at running the football,
they rank #26 in the nation, and are averaging 204 yards per game rushing in
conference play. South Alabama cannot
stop the run. The have the #115 ranked
rush defense in the nation and are allowing 210 rushing yards per game in
conference play. All other stats are
pretty much an offsetting wash, literally, USA has the #83 rush offense and ULL
has the #83 rush defense. USA has the
#71 pass offense and ULL has the #71 pass defense. ULL doesn’t pass the ball well, but that’s
the only thing USA does good, defend the pass.
So what happens when it comes down to a team that can run against a team
that can’t stop the run? They usually
win. The fact that you get a 3 point
security blanket along with them is icing on the cake. Finally I’ll tell you how my computer feels
about this game. It says that ULL should
be a favorite of -5.5 points. That gives
you 8.5 points of value by taking the underdog here. There have been 10 games so far this year
that my computer has graded of 7+ points of value with the underdog, of those
10 games 8 have covered the spread.
Based on the rushing statistics I have no reason to believe that ULL
won’t make that 9 out of 11. I’m going
BIG on ULL.
Friday
USC (-16.5) at Colorado:
I’ve been involved with a pick the past 2 weeks of games
that included Colorado. Last week I went
against them with Stanford laying heaving chalk on the road, and the Cardinal
responded with a blowout win by 32 points and an easy cover. Two weeks ago I backed the Buffaloes on the
road against UCLA, and they narrowly lost, giving me the easy cover. So back to back weeks with wins playing
Colorado, what will I do this week? Well
lets dive into the numbers and see where they lead us. Lets start with the defense of Colorado. As I outlined last week, the Buffaloes cannot
stop the run, and are allowing 250 rushing yards per game in conference
play. USC has 2 running backs that are
ready for the NFL, and will probably perform well in the NFL when they finally
get there. Now Colorado has done a great
job of defending the pass, as they are allowing less passing yards per game
than they are allowing rushing yards.
Which is very rare in today’s football landscape. That isn’t necessarily the best news for USC
as they are more of a passing team than a running team, but ever since the
drunk coach was show the door, the team has ran the ball, and ran it a lot. In there last 3 games, USC has rushed 45, 50
and 40 times. I tell you if they do that
against this Colorado team there is no way they aren’t going to cover this
spread. Especially if they get an early
lead, they will just keep pounding the ball down the throats of the Colorado
defense. This is a prime opportunity for
both Madden and Jones to get 100+ yards in the same game. I’m very tempted to take USC, and I’ve damn
near talked myself into it. I was going
to say take USC but at half your normal betting value, but fuck it, it’s only
money, and you can’t take it with you.
Chances are if you go light on USC or skip this game they will win big,
but if you back them at normal value they will struggle, as that is usually how
it goes. Oh well, let’s see how it goes. USC is a pick for this week.
So I guess I have 2 picks, 1 BIG one for Thursday, and a
normal sized one for Friday. Hopefully
all goes well, and we head into Saturday with plenty of bullets for the
weekend, as there are 50 lined games for Saturday. Check back for the weekend picks.
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