Happy Thanksgiving everyone. As usual we have 3 NFL games to be thankful
for today. I’m going to break down each
game, and we’ll see if I talk myself into a pick or not. Last week was another struggle with a 1-2
record, but if you listened to my advice about the teaser play on Monday night
you would’ve been a winner. I didn’t
call it an official pick so I’m not counting it. Anyways it’s a new week so lets get to it.
Philadelphia at Detroit (-2):
My sole win last week was the dismantling of the Eagles by
Tampa Bay. I figured Tampa would play
them tough, but I didn’t think they would win the game. Anyways that game was a perfect example of
the struggles the Eagles will face with Sanchez as their QB. If Mark Sanchez was your QB, would you want
to throw the ball 41 times in a game? I
know I wouldn’t, and every Jets fan knows they wouldn’t, but I’m not sure the
Eagles fans have figured that out yet.
If the Eagles want to win today they need to run the ball, and run it a
lot. They have 3 really good RB’s in the
back field, and there is no reason that they can’t each get 15-20 carries in
this game. I wouldn’t call a pass play
if I was Chip Kelly. I would say here is
what we’re going to do, are you man enough to stop us? And I don’t think the Lions are. They have the #24 rated rush defense, and are
allowing 117 rushing yards per game. The
Lions have turned it around since their bye week and have pulled out 2 straight
victories, including an upset of Green Bay on the road. Similar to my thoughts of Miami last week,
you can’t bet on Jekyll/Hyde teams, and that is what both of these teams
are. Pass on this game.
Carolina at Dallas (pick em):
This should be a low scoring affair as you have 2 of the
leagues better defense squaring off. The
Panthers look like legit title contenders, and Cam Newton is playing like the
league MVP right now. Of course the
Redskins don’t play well on the road at all, so don’t read to much into the
beat down the Panthers gave them last week.
The Panthers are still lead by a top 5 defense and are allowing less
than 100 rushing yards per game this season.
That could be trouble for this Cowboys offense, as they will need to get
the running game going in order to have success today. I said Romo would be rusty last week, and he
was. Now he has to turn around and play
again 4 days later. Romo doesn’t usually
practice with the team until Wednesday or Thursday during a normal week, so I
doubt he was a participant in anything this week except meetings. Which means he will still be rusty. That’s not good against this defense that has
had 5 sacks in 4 games so far this season, including last week. The Panthers have also done a good job of
protecting the football this season as they are +13 in turnovers on the year,
while the Cowboys are -9. I’m going to
pass on this game as there are to many variables with the Cowboys to be really
confident in what’s going to happen. I
find the line of pick em as strange, as I would expect the Cowboys to be
getting some points in this game, which also indicates the experts know
something I don’t.
Chicago at Green Bay (-9.5):
Ah, the night cap.
This is a rematch from the week 1 battle at Soldier field. I was a backer of the Packers in that game,
and barely covered, but a win is a win.
I went against the Packers against the Broncos and the Panthers as a
winner, and then a loser last week siding with the Vikings. Chicago has really exceeded expectations this
year, and have been in every game except week 2 against Arizona and week 3 at
Seattle. Since that week 3 debacle at
Seattle, the Bears have had the following results; won by 2, won by 1, 3 point
loss, 3 point loss, 3 point win, 24 point win, and last week a 2 point
loss. Those games included matchups at
Kansas City, vs Minnesota and at San Diego.
The Bears defense has played really well this season, and unless the
Packers get the run game going this week they might run into trouble again as
the Bears bring the #4 rated pass defense to the table. The Packers defense was able to hold Vikings
to under 100 rushing yards last week, and were able to apply constant pressure
on Bridgewater with 6 sacks and multiple more hits on the QB. Somehow the Bears have only allowed more than
2 sacks once this season, so I doubt that the Packers will be able to duplicate
that effort again this week. I’m still
not sold on this Packers team, and that’s a lot of points to be laying in
division play, in November, even if you are playing at home. I’m going to take the Bears and the points,
but I’m going to buy the extra half point and get +10. The Packers are a public team, so there is a
chance this line goes higher, so keep an eye on that.
Good luck this today.
Check back later for my college football picks for Friday, and also be
sure to check out my basketball blog as I’m off to a great start with another
5-2 day yesterday giving me a 3 day performance of 15-6.
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