College Football week 10 Saturday

Got off to a slow start this week.  Losing my Tuesday night pick, and missing the Wednesday game.  My pick from Thursday of Nevada was a winner, putting me at 1-1 on the week with the BYU pick happening tonight.  Here are 12 more picks for Saturday games.  I’m still on the fence about Oklahoma State.  I really really like that team getting points at home, but having a hard time pulling the trigger.  I might add them later, who knows what opportunities that line movements will present.  Anyways, here are my 12 picks for Saturday.

Colorado State (-10.5) at Wyoming:

This is a rivalry game.  The schools are within 100 miles of each other.  Is Colorado State the better team?  Yes they are.  Will they cover this spread?  I don’t think so.  In a rivalry game, teams usually get up a little more than they do for every other game.  I’m expecting Wyoming to do just that.  Throw in the fact that Wyoming prefers to run the ball, and Colorado State isn’t good at stopping the run, and you have the makings of an upset brewing.  Wyoming averaging 196 yards rushing at home, while Colorado State is allowing 234 per game on the road.  No, they aren’t just terrible stopping the run on the road either, as they are allowing 214 overall on the season.  Will Wyoming pull the outright upset?  I’m not sure they can, but I’m willing to bet that they will keep it close and give themselves a chance.

Notre Dame (-9) at Pittsburgh:

Last week we fell short backing both of these team, Pitt at home against North Carolina and Notre Dame on the road against Temple.  Notre Dame should’ve been a cover as they had 3 drives in the red zone that ended up as 2 turnovers and a field goal.  That’s the difference between a win and a loss right there.  Pitt couldn’t stop the big play against UNC, and paid the price in the end.  This week I’m going with Notre Dame and it’s because they have an offense, and Pitt has trouble with the big play.  The defenses are about the same, and offset each other.  With Notre Dame having the better offense, and a top 15 rushing attack, you have to pull the trigger on them.  Let me put it this way, Notre Dame is averaging 496 yards per game on offense, 227 rushing, while Pitt only averages 365.  That’s a huge discrepancy.  And the Irish only loss this season is to #1 Clemson on the road by 2 points, and they had a chance to win.  The Irish are for real.

Idaho at South Alabama (-9.5):

This is a match up of 2 teams stuck in the bottom 10 in the nation.  I actually have Idaho rated slightly better than South Alabama in this game.  There is no reason for the line to be this high.  I’m not going to talk about statistics here, as neither of these teams do anything pretty, I’m just going to rely on the fact that you have 2 very bad teams, rated very similar, and play very similar to each other.  There is no reason what-so-ever that this line is this high.  We had success at the beginning of the season finding value in shitty teams playing each other, and I think this will play out similar, close game.  Take the points. 

Wisconsin (-11.5) at Maryland:

Last week I was a backer of Iowa at home against Maryland, laying 17 points.  Iowa didn’t get a final statement score, and allowed a bullshit touchdown in the 4^th to win by 16.  I still stand by that decision, and am going against Maryland again this week.  Wisconsin had been passing the ball more this year than normal, but that was due to RB Clement being out.  He returned last week and got 115 yards rushing.  I expect him to run even more this week against Maryland, whose rush defense is rated 100 in the nation allowing 167 yards per game.  Wisconsin only has 2 losses this season, and both are to top 10 teams.  Maryland played their best game of season 2 weeks ago against Penn State, then traveled and got pummeled by Iowa last week.  If they want any chance staying in this game they will have to get offense going as they are only averaging 300 yards per game in conference play.  That will be tough against a Wisconsin defense that is only allowing 247 yards per game in conference play.  Look for Wisconsin to run away with this game.

UCLA (-17) at Oregon State:

I feel like this has/will be said in this post a lot, I went against UCLA and won last week, but am backing them this week.  It’s all about matchups, and exploiting the ones you can.  Oregon State is without it’s starting QB in this game.  That matters because he is also their leading rusher.  He is being replaced by a freshman!  With that being the case, I just don’t see any way that Oregon State can keep pace with UCLA on the score board.  Take away your most important player, does your team have the same success?  I know from experience that wasn’t the case for the teams I played on in high school and college.  NFL is a different story.  UCLA is a proven winner.  Oregon State is a proven loser.  They are losing by an average of 12 points per game on the season, and that’s with their best player.

Utah at Washington (-1.5):

Last week I was a winner going with Washington, and I’m going with them again this week.  This is a team that is getting better every week.  Not sure we can say the same for Utah.  This is a battle between 2 teams with great defenses.  Utah has the better rush defense while Washington has the better passing defense, and total defense.  Both team are good at protecting the ball.  I’m giving the edge to Washington in this one, for a few different reasons.  One, they’ve performed better ATS so far this year.  Two, they are playing at home.  Three, Utah has never beat Washington.  Finally, I just don’t trust this Utah team.  It’s very hard to go on the road and win in conference play against a team that is pretty close in each statistical category, especially when the line is basically a pick em.  Take the home team here.

Cincinnati at Houston (-8):

Two potent offenses square off in this game in what should be a high flying affair.  Looking at the offensive output that Houston has, it’s surprising that it’s a pretty even split between the rush and the pass.  Cincinnati is more of an air raid type team, averaging nearly 400 yards per game in the air.  The difference is that Houston can also play some defense, and has a #30 ranked defense in the nation.  This is led by their ability to stop the run, with the #11 rush defense.  Sure I just Cincinnati is a pass first team, but they also run the ball.  And if you can make a team one dimensional, then you just increased your chances to win and cover the spread.  Finally, what drives me to take the home team in this game is turnovers.  Houston is +15 on the season, while Cincinnati is -9.  Sure Cincy has done a better job of protecting the football lately, but so has Houston.  Oh and if you don’t want a side in this game, then I would suggest the over 72.5 point total.  That’s only 10 touchdowns and a field goal to cover.  Houston can do that on it’s own.

Syracuse at Louisville (-14):

Syracuse let me down last week, but I’m going back to the well with them this week.  The reason is because Louisville hasn’t shown the ability to win big.  They only have 1 win this season by greater than 7 points and that was against FCS Samford, so doesn’t really count.  Louisville hasn’t covered a spread as a favorite this year.  I know Syracuse has trouble on offense, but so does Louisville.  I see nothing that says this is going to be a blow out.  It will go down to the end, with Louisville probably winning by 6, 7 or 8.  Take the points.

Stanford (-16) at Colorado:

What a difference a week makes.  Just last week I was singing the Buffalo’s praises, this week I’m going to talk bad about them.  How do you think a team will stack up in a game where they have the #104 rush defense and are facing the #19 rush offense?  Let’s put it another way.  How well will a team do if it’s allowing 245 yards rushing per game, when they are facing a team that is averaging 260 rushing yards per game?  Not very well if you ask me.  Running the ball is my favorite category in football, and it’s extremely important to a teams ability to win and cover the spread.  Stanford does that very very well.  You know what else Stanford does well, they stop the run, which is Colorado’s preferred method of moving the football.  Is this clear yet?  Stanford runs all over Colorado.

Marshall at Middle Tennessee (-3):

The only reason why Marshall is the underdog in this game is because they are playing on the road.  They are the better team.  It would probably be pick em on a neutral site.  So however you rate MTSU home field is how much they should be favored in this game.  Marhsall is also 5-2 ATS while Middle Tennessee is 3-4 ATS.  MTSU strength is in the passing game, but that is being countered this week against a very strong Marshall pass defense that is only allowing 177 yards per game on 47% completion percentage.  Marshall has also been better in protecting the football as they are +5 in turnovers this season while MTSU is -2.  I think MTSU will lack the success they’ve had on offense going against this strong passing defense, and won’t be able to keep up with Marshall as the Thundering Hood pull off the upset and make it 8 wins in a row.

Louisiana Lafayette (-2) at Georgia State:

Last week I was a winner going against La Lafayette.  This week I’m hoping to be a winner backing them.  Basically you’re better on who will win this game, and there is no doubt that will be Lafayette.  Georgia State is a bottom 10 team in the nation, and you all know I love picking on the shitty teams.  Lafayette is averaing 220 rushing yards per game, and Georgia State is allowing 211 yards per game.  Sure Georgia State has had success passing the ball, but that is actually Lafayette’s strength on defense.  Anyways, I said the stats that are influencing my decision.  Always take the team that can run the ball, against the team that can’t stop the run, when the line is this close.  I don’t care.  Ragin’ Cajuns all the way.

Central Florida at Tulsa (-16.5):

Central Florida is bottom 15 in the nation bad.  Very very bad year for them.  They can’t stop the run, they can’t stop the pass, and even worse they have no hope on offense either.  We’re talking about a team that is averaging 76 rushing yards per game, and that drops to 62 when they play on the road.  Also, they are only averaging 181 yards passing on the road.  That’s 243 yards per game, total.  Tulsa on the other hand is an offensive juggernaut.  They are averaging 165 on the ground per game at home, and another 378 through the air.  That’s 543 yards of offense per game.  Now the defense does surrender a lot of yards and points, but do you really think that a team that is rated 129 offensively on the year will be able to score enough points to keep up with a top 10 rated offense on the year?  I don’t, and I don’t care how crappy the defense they is that they are facing.  UCF has only scored more than 16 points once this season, and that was against Tulane.  Don’t look for them to turn it on in this one either, take Tulsa.