College Football week 11 Wednesday

There are 2 more MACtion games on Wednesday, after the 2 on Tuesday night.  The MAC conference loves playing the weekday games and getting their teams on national television.  I’m a fan of MAC football, it’s extremely entertaining, but sometimes the games take a while because they are high scoring affairs.  Tonight’s games feature 3 high scoring teams, and 1 that is struggling on offense lately.

Bowling Green (-2.5) at Western Michigan:

These are 2 high flying offenses.  Here are the point totals for Bowling Green for the past 4 weeks; 62, 48, 59, 62.  And here are the last 4 for Western Michigan; 54, 58, 35 and 49.  Not to shabby.  No wonder Vegas set the total at 76.5.  However, that total is getting bet down, and is currently at 73.  Don’t ask me why that’s happening, must be people that are much smarter than me taking the under.  Perhaps it’s a play on the weather, as the west coast of Michigan is expected to get hammered with high winds, rain and a whole bunch of other nasty shit tonight.  In order to understand the tonight though, you need to speak weather person, and in this case tonight means over night, so any time between the sun going down and the sun coming up.  In this case, the bad weather isn’t expected to move in until 11 p.m. or later.  This game kicks off at 8, so should be close to wrapping up by the time the weather takes a turn for the worst.  What about the forecast during the game?  Supposed to be clear with winds anywhere from 12-20 mph.  So nothing extraordinary.  Both teams have played well ATS this year, but WMU has struggled some at home going 2-2 ATS.  This line is set perfectly for a neutral site matchup, so any value would be on the home team, and dependent on how may points you award WMU for playing at home. 

Okay, back to the offenses for a minute, and then I’ll wrap this game up.  Bowling Green has the #1 rated passing attack in the nation, but only have the #81 rushing attack.  That’s okay though, because they really don’t rely on the run in order to win.  I mean sure they are averaging 175 yards per game on the ground in conference play, but they are also averaging 421 passing yards per game against conference foes.  That’s good enough for the #3 ranked offense in the nation.  Western Michigan is more balanced on offense as they are rated #29 in both passing and running the ball.  The defensive edge goes to the Broncos as they are only allowing 227 passing yards per game in conference play.  I’m going to pass on a taking a side in this game, but I will put a few dollars down on the over, as I fully expect these 2 offenses to go crazy in this game.

Northern Illinois (-7) at Buffalo:

Northern Illinois is another team that has played very well on offense with the last 4 being 32, 49, 45, and 59.  Buffalo hasn’t performed so well on offense, with the point totals being 18, 29, 41 and 14.  Like I said, Buffalo’s strength is on defense, while Northern Illinois’ strength is on offense.  However, Northern Illinois has a higher rated defensive team than Buffalo does, so take the Bulls strength with a grain of salt.  Northern Illinois is rated #31 in rushing offense and #55 in passing offense with a total offensive ranking of #37.  Buffalo has the #104 rated rushing attack and the #59 rated passing attack for a total offensive ranking of #85, not so good.  On the defensive side of the ball they are pretty even with Northern Illinois rated #54 overall and Buffalo rated #61 overall.   

Buffalo has played well in the underdog role this year going 4-1 ATS in those situations.  Northern Illinois is the more complete team, and my computer says this line should be Northern Illinois -7.5 or -8.  That doesn’t represent much value, but remember this is dragged down because of Buffalo playing at home and getting a few extra points for that.  If this was a neutral site it would be closer to Northern Illinois -10 or -11.  This line has recently moved from Northern Illinois -6 to -7, and I liked it much better at -6, but I’m not afraid to pull the trigger on this team at -7.  I’m making Northern Illinois my first pick for this week.

Also, if you like teaser play, I’m a big fan of a 6.5 point teaser using the 2 road favorites.  That would move Bowling Green to +4 and Northern Illinois to basically a pick play, or teasing Northern Illinois along with the over in the BGSU/WMU game.  But those aren’t official picks, just throwing ideas out there.  Check back later for Thursday and Friday games.  There are only 3 games between Thursday and Friday this week, so I’m going to knock them all out in one post.