Okay, I dropped the ball twice this week and
it’s only Wednesday. First was the slip
up of the pick of Toledo on Tuesday night.
They had that game, all they had to do was put them away, or maybe get a
stop or two. But they didn’t. They didn’t do shit in the even numbered
quarters. I also dropped the ball on the
Wednesday night game breakdown. I mean I
can still do it, but the games about to start, and after that who really cares
what I have to say about it anyways. Oh
well, it’s how you finish that matters, and that’s the motto that I’m going on
this week. Lots of games on the docket
for Thursday and Friday night, so I better get to it.
Thursday night:
Baylor (-17) at Kansas State:
Yes, Kansas State is having a down year. Yes, they struggle mightily in the passing
game, both sides of the ball. Normally
that would get me salivating when Baylor comes to town. Baylor, a team built around passing, against
a team that can’t stop the pass. Yes
please!! However, this isn’t a normal
year, and no that’s not because they let me down last week in the remnants of a
hurricane. It’s because they are
starting a freshman quarterback. Oh and
he’s making his first start. I don’t
care what offense you’re in, the first time you start at quarterback as a
freshman, you don’t want it to be in the little apple. With that in mind, 17 is still an intriguing
number. But I thinks it’s too many
points to lay, and not enough points to take, so just leave this one alone and
watch what the future at qb for Baylor looks like.
Buffalo (-2.5) at Kent State:
This is an intriguing line as it falls under a field goal. I’d prefer it if the line was reversed and I
could get a few points with Buffalo. The
Bulls haven’t performed up to expectation this season, and the Golden Flashes
have been about what was expected. Kent
State has the better defense, and Buffalo has the better offense. They are pretty much balanced against each
other in strength vs strength and weakness vs weakness. If I had to pick a side to prevail in that I
would go with the better team statistically and that’s Buffalo. However, I’m passing on this game.
Arkansas State at Appalachian State (-10.5):
This line is right where I have it rated if these 2 teams
were playing on a neutral field. They
are not, so the value is in what you judge the home field advantage to be. This is a matchup of 2 good running teams
going against 2 good run defenses.
Neither team does the pass thing that well on offense, but on defense
App State definitely gets the nod. With
both teams having success in the run, you would normally expect a grind it out
slow down game. App State will prove
other wise though and win by a good sum.
I expect them to have better than expected success on the ground, and to
hold Arkansas State to minimum points. I
have no reason to believe that App State can’t win this by 2 td’s or more. No, that’s not a pick, just sayin.
Ball State at Western Michigan (-14.5):
If you want the dog, this is at a great line as you need to
lose by 3 scores. If you want the
favorite you can just buy it down for insurance at -14, and have the chance for
a push. Personally I don’t see any value
in the line. Here’s the thing about this
game. While both defenses are weak,
bottom 40 weak, Ball State is bottom 20 weak.
Throw in a Western Michigan offense that is averaging 515 yards per game
in conference play, and you might have a recipe for disaster, or success
depending on your side. Ball State did
get back in the W column for the first time since week 3. Some would expect them to carry that momentum
forward. I on the other hand expect that
to hurt them, as bad teams don’t know how to act after winning. Sure Ball State has won in the past, but the
present edition is still figuring that out.
Look for WMU to roll in this game.
Mississippi State (-8) at Missouri:
Missouri is a magnet, polar opposites. The offense is rated bottom 15, and the
defense is rated top 10. That is the
only reason they have been able to stay in games, they have a dominant
defense. Something that is necessary in
the SEC. The question is if Mississippi
State can muster enough offense to win by 2 scores (or a td and 2 pt for a
push), on the road, against a top 10 defense.
That’s a very good question. Maybe
the better question is does Missouri have enough offense to keep them in this
game. They just can’t move the ball,
only averaging 16 first downs per game.
In the last three games, they have only scored 12 points. That’s total between the 3 games. They haven’t scored a td since the South
Carolina game. While my mind keeps
telling me that Mississippi State wins this by 21, there is a reason this line
is only 8, I’m gong to pass.
Nevada (-4) at Fresno State:
Okay, Fresno State is bottom 15 in the nation, and they have
absolutely no fire power on offense. In conference
play, Fresno State is -214 yards per game.
Did I mention they can’t stop the run.
You know who can run the football?
That’s right, Nevada, and their top 25 rated offense. Nevada is averaging 212 yards per game
rushing, and that’s slightly better at 214 in conference play. Fresno State allows 239 yards on the ground
per game, and in conference play that jumps up to 289. You mean to tell me that a team that can run
the ball is only laying 4 points to a team that can’t stop the run and has no
offense to speak of. Where do I get in
line. Did I mention Fresno State has
only covered once this season? Nevada is
a pick
Okay, well that’s like 1,000 words or more, and I want to
stop, so I’ll finish Friday games later.
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