I hope everyone had a happy
thanksgiving. If your day was anything
like mine you ate to much, and drank to much, and had a hard time keeping your
eyes open after the turkey was done being consumed. Gotta love a good food coma. This isn’t our typical Friday lineup of
football games. Normally we only get 2
games at night, and I give insights into both games and sometimes talk myself
into making a bet on one of the games.
This week we have a whole slate of football games and they start at
noon. It’s like a mini Saturday. There are 15 games playing tomorrow, which is
too many for me to give insights for, so I’m only going to talk about the games
that I like, which only happens to be 2 of them. There were others that I was intrigued by,
but not enough to put my money behind them.
Remember, sometimes the best bets are the ones you don’t make. Let’s get to it.
Iowa at Nebraska (+2):
Iowa has already clinched a spot in the Big Ten championship
game, and is fighting for a spot in the playoffs. Nebraska is trying to become bowl eligible,
and must win this game in order to extend their season. Nebraska is also coming off of a bye, and get
to play at home, so they will be fresh and ready to rock. Iowa is travelling on short rest, but coming
off of 2 straight home games. Before
last weeks 20-point win over Purdue, Iowa was in a couple of battles against
Indiana and Minnesota. Iowa is
definitely a power rush team, but unfortunately for them that makes them one
dimensional. They are actually averaging
more rushing yards per game in conference play and on the road than passing
yards, and usually call twice as many run plays as they do pass plays. That plays right into Nebraska’s hands as
they have the #9 rated rush defense in the nation and are only allowing 101
rushing yards per game at home. Iowa
also has a strong rush defense, but Nebraska is more of a passing team in Mike
Riley’s offense than a running team. As
the season has progressed, Nebraska has looked better each week in Riley’s
offense, and with Armstrong healthy and leading the team they shouldn’t have
any problems moving the ball in this game.
This game should be a battle, and come down to the wire. In those instances, I like to take the points
or the home team, in this case I get to do both. Nebraska +2.
Western Michigan at Toledo (-8):
Both teams are entering this game off of a bye, but in the
week before Toledo won while Western lost.
When it comes to backing a team, I like teams that can run the ball,
especially when they are playing a team that struggles to stop the run. Toledo is averaging 215 rushing yards on the
season, and that number goes up to 232 at home and 247 in conference play. Western Michigan is allowing 250 rushing
yards per game while playing on the road, and in their last game at Northern
Illinois they allowed 289 rushing yards.
They’ve done better in defending the pass, but not that much better
allowing 220 yards per game overall.
Toledo counters that averaging 247 yards overall. So to me that all boils down to Toledo being
able to move the ball at will and run the offense that they feel comfortable
in. Western Michigan does have a strong
offense as well, but Toledo will be able to take away the run as they are only
allowing 115 rushing yards per game overall, which is well below the 202 yards that WMU is averaging. As long as Toledo can take away the run, they
shouldn’t have any trouble winning this game by double digits. They will be able to run the ball, control
the clock, and keep the fans into it. I’m
backing Toledo at home.
Check back tomorrow for the Saturday Selections, and be sure
to check out my college basketball picks, as I’ve been on a tear winning 71% of
my bets over the first 3 days I’ve made selections.
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