Well that wasn’t what I expected to
happen. I really thought that Louisiana
Lafayette was going to win that game.
They had the chances that’s for sure.
They missed a field goal in the first half, and then with the lead 25-24
late in the game, they throw an interception, giving South Alabama the ball in
the red zone with under 5 minutes to play.
Should’ve ran the ball, wasted clock and punted forcing the Jaguars to
go the length of the field. That’s not
what happened though, and now I’m sitting 1-1 on the week with a pick of USC
tonight pending. Hopefully we can get to
Saturday with a 2-1 record. Here are my
picks for the weekend. A slight switch
in format, in all prior posts I just posted the line on the favorite,
regardless of which team I was backing.
Starting now, I’m putting the line on the team that I’m backing, so if I’m
taking the underdog you’ll see +3 or whatever they happen to be. This should help make more clear which team I’m
siding with.
Pittsburgh (+3) at Duke:
This is the 4th week in a row I’ve picked a game
that included Pittsburgh. I won with
Syracuse, lost with Pitt against UNC and then last week covered with Notre
Dame. This week I’m going back to
Pittsburgh and taking the points. Duke
is coming off of 2 very tough losses.
Two weeks ago they were burnt by Miami FL on all those laterals, and
last week they were completely embarrassed by UNC. They have 3 like opponents, with both beating
Georgia Tech (Pitt on the road), both teams beating Virginia Tech on the road,
and finally both losing to UNC (Duke on the road). I have these 2 teams rated 1 point apart,
with Pitt having the higher/better rating.
So the line is based on home field adjustment for Duke, and I think it’s
adjusted 1 point to much. Pitt is 4-1
ATS on the road this year, while Duke is 1-3 ATS at home. Defense is the strong side of the ball for
both of these teams, and they are rated very similar at #27 and #29 respectively. Duke is have a slightly better season statistically
on offense though. Finally, the game has
been decided by a field goal in the past 2 seasons. Nothing is telling me that this game will be
different, so it’s best to grab the points.
Pitt is the pick.
Middle Tennessee (-5.5) at Florida Atlantic:
FAU is in the bottom 25 based on ratings. MTSU is closer to the middle of the
pack. I have this game rated closer to
MTSU -7, so getting some value here.
Both teams are rated about the same on the defensive side of the ball at
#87 and #89. Offense though is a
different story with FAU rated #68 and MTSU rated #31. The Blue Raiders benefit from a potent
passing attack that has been averaging 334 yards per game in conference
play. They did get lucky last week in
the fact that Marshall missed 5 field goals, but it’s a new week. MTSU needs 2 more wins in last 3 games of
season in order to become bowl eligible, and this represents a great
opportunity for them to get 1 of those wins.
Look for MTSU to pass their way to victory and the cover this week.
Akron (-7) at Miami OH:
If you’re a normal reader then you should remember me
talking about how bad Miami OH is, and how they are constantly rated at the
bottom of the pile. They did improve
slightly with a win last week over Eastern Michigan, but that is one of 5 teams
that is worse than them this year. I’m
going with the defense of Akron in this game, and am looking for the Zips to
get a shut out on the road. They can’t
beat you if they can’t score, and Miami OH has a hard time scoring with the
#123 rated scoring offense on the season.
They also can’t run the ball for shit as they have the #112 rated
rushing attack. Put a shitty offense up
against the #26 rated defense (#5 rated rush defense) and it’s a recipe for a
long day. It’s not like Akron has an
amazing offense, but based on the strength of their defense they don’t need
one. Nothing to exciting to say about
this one, just take the better defense.
Nebraska (-8.5) at Rutgers:
Nebraska has played in some pretty interesting games so far
this year. They lost week 1 on a hail
mary, and then had the improbable come from behind win last week against
Michigan State. Normally this would be a
great spot to fade them, laying points on the road after a huge victory. But not against Rutgers who is struggling
with their identity this year and has more press for off field issues than on
field success. To me this game boils down
to one thing, strength versus weakness.
The strength is Nebraska’s passing offense, which is rated #26 in the
nation, and is much better with Tommy Armstrong running the show. That strength is going up against the #124
rated passing defense that Rutgers sports.
Oh and did I mention that Rutgers is getting outgained by 184 yards per
game in conference play? Yes I know
Nebraska lost on the road to Purdue 2 weeks ago, but that was without Armstrong
playing and with them losing the turnover battle by 5, ouch that’s a lot of
turnovers. This team is way more
comfortable in Mike Riley’s system now than they were at the beginning of the
year and are putting up a lot of points.
Rutgers is averaging 11 points over the last 3 games and only have the
#84 rated offense in the nation. Look
for the Cornhuskers to get 1 game closer to bowl eligibility with a big win
this week.
Kentucky at Vanderbilt (-3.5):
Obviously you want insurance, so you need to buy this down
to -3 from the current line of -3.5. Similar
to the Akron game outlined above, this is strictly a play based on Vanderbilt’s
defense. The Commodores have the #19
rated defense in the nation, and are especially stout against the run. Both teams struggle on offense as Kentucky is
rated #94 and Vanderbilt is rated #112.
Vanderbilt runs the ball better than they throw, and that’s good news as
Kentucky is rated #99 in stopping the run this year. Here are the ATS records for both teams this
year. Kentucky is 2-6 ATS overall, 1-2
ATS on the road, and 1-5 ATS as an underdog.
Vanderbilt is 6-2 ATS overall, 3-0 ATS at home and 1-0 ATS as a
favorite. That’s really all there is to
this game, Vanderbilt defense and 2 shitty offenses. Take the home team and lay the short chalk.
Utah State at Air Force (+1):
This is going to be a battle, and probably a highly
entertaining game. Both teams are lead
by dominate defense, with Utah State rated #17 (#38 rushing and #9 passing)
while Air Force is rated #8 (#21 rush and #8 pass). On the other side of the ball Air Force
brings the #2 rated rushing attack to the table. Sure they suck at throwing the ball, but when
you’re averaging 390 rushing yards per game in conference play you really don’t
need to throw the ball at all. In 2 of
it’s last 3 games Utah State has allowed rushing yards of 336 at San Diego
State and 270 home against Wyoming, and neither of those teams are as good at
running the ball as Air Force. Flip the
script and it doesn’t seem like Utah State will be able to move the ball very
well as they have the #97 rated offense (#71 rush and #100 pass). Going against this Falcons defense will be
very hard for them with such a poor offense.
I honestly have no idea why Utah State is the favorite in this
game. Air Force should be the favorite
by a couple of points at least. When you
have 2 teams squaring off with similar success on defense, you have to back the
team with the better offense. And in
this case that also happens to be the team with the better defense too. Air Force is just the better team all around,
hit them hard.
Appalachian State (-19.5) at Idaho:
Once again I’m picking on a team at the bottom of the NCAA
rankings going against Idaho, whom is bottom 11. App State is averaging 235 rushing yards per
game in conference play, and 273 per game on the road. That’s good enough to get them the #9 rated
rushing attack in NCAA. They do pass the
ball better than Air Force at 262 yards per game in conference play, but
similar to Air Force they run the ball so well they don’t need to pass. That is especially true in this game as Idaho
is allowing 263 rushing yards per game in conference play and are rated #125 in
rushing defense. Idaho is better at
passing than running on offense, and that’s not very good news for them as App
State is better defending the pass than they are the run. App State has the #20 rated defense in the
nation and the #18 pass defense.
Finally, App State is on a bye next week, so you don’t have to worry
about them looking ahead to next opponent and allowing a back door cover. Who does Idaho play next week? Auburn, that’s who, and on the road. Yes this is a lot of chalk to lay on the
road, but seriously, a top 10 rushing team against a bottom 3 rushing defense
and the case is made for itself.
That’s it, just 7 games this Saturday, giving me 10 for the
week. Good luck.
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