College Football week 14

It seems like it’s been forever since I wrote a college football piece.  I guess that’s what happens when you go from an almost daily post to just 1 for the week.  We are in the final week of college football with conference championships and games between SBC and Big 12 teams.  We only have 15 games this week in total, but I think there is value in 5 of those games.  Last week we ended up going 2-4 on the week, but we’re still at a respectable 70-56-5 on the season.  Here are my picks for the final week. 

Appalachian State (-18) at South Alabama:

This game represents the best opportunity for a win this weekend.  Appalachian State does 2 things well, they run the ball and they play defense.  App State enters this game averaging 268 rushing yards per game, which is the #6 rated rush offense in the nation.  South Alabama allows 214 rushing yards per game on the season, which is a lot.  USA has seen 42 rushing attempts per game, and I wouldn’t imagine them seeing any less this week.  The only way this stays inside the number of 18 is if South Alabama can score with App State, which they won’t be able to do.  They only average 360 total yards per game, and App State only allows 319 total yards per game.  Mix that up in a bag and you get Appalachian State running (see what I did there) away with this game.  I’m BIG on App State.

Troy at Louisiana Lafayette (-2):

I have these 2 teams rated very close to each other, only separated by about a point.  On defense Troy has a slight advantage as they have the #70 rated total defense, but that is mostly thanks to the #33 rated pass defense.  ULL has the #87 rated defense, and perform about the same against the run as they do the pass.  On offense, Troy has the #105 rated offense again thanks to passing as they have the #57 rated pass attack (does that tell you how poor their rush offense is?).  ULL has the #74 rated offense, and are more balanced than Troy but have better success running the ball.  In fact ULL is averaging 178 rushing yards per game while Troy is allowing 199 per game.  So I get a team that can run the ball against a team that can’t run the ball, at home and laying less than a field goal?  Yes please.

Temple at Houston (-5.5):

I’ve talked about this Temple team quite a few times this year, mostly fading them on the road and pointing out that they struggle stopping people away from home.  Temple is allowing 447 yards per game on the road.  That doesn’t stack up well against an offense that is averaging 503 yards of offense at home.  Houston does it through the air and on the ground as the home splits are 226 rushing per game and 277 passing per game.  Temple defense is allowing 167 rushing per game and 279 passing per game on the road.  So Houston might not be able to get to that rushing figure, but will have no trouble hitting passing average.  Houston’s only blemish on the season was a road game at Connecticut 2 weeks ago, and that was more of a result of losing the turnover battle and finishing -4 in that game.  Temple’s last road game was a 23-44 loss to South Florida.  I’m taking the home team and laying less than a touchdown in this game.

Air Force at San Diego State (-6.5):

Normally I would jump at a chance to take Air Force and points, but not this week.  Air Force has 4 losses on the season, and all 4 were by double digits.  This is also their 3^rd straight road game.  And yes I know they are very tough on defense, but San Diego State actually has the better defensive unit.  SDSU also does a fine job in slowing down the run as they have the #4 rated rush defense in the nation.  Finally, ever since SDSU has gotten into conference play they have dominated.  They are a perfect 8-0 in the Mountain West, and on defense they are only allowing 227 yards per game.  The average margin of victory in those 8 games is just shy of 25 points.  SDSU is a run first team that controls the clock, gives the defense rest and then shuts down the opponents offense.  I’m going with SDSU in this game.

Southern Miss (+8) at Western Kentucky:

This has all the makings of a high scoring affair.  You have the #8 (Southern Miss) and #10 (WKU) offenses squaring off in this battle.  The only difference is that Southern Miss is better on defense.  When the offenses offset each other, you have to go with the team with the better defense.  In this case that also happens to be the team that is getting the points, Southern Miss.  I expect this game to come down to the last team that scores wins, which means anything over a td is money.

Good luck this week.  I’ll be back with bowl selections throughout the bowl season.  I will also continue with my NFL picks on a weekly basis.  And of course, be sure to check out my basketball picks as I’m off to a pretty good start there.