No official picks yesterday, so still
standing at 4-3 in Bowl Games so far. We
have a few good ones today, and I’m starting with the Armed Forces Bowl.
Air Force (+7) vs California
Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth, TX
Those that have been with me for a while, know that I like
teams that can play defense and run the ball.
It’s usually a good formula for winning spread bets. In the Armed Forces bowl we get a team that
fits that criteria in Air Force. We also
get the points. Air Force has the #2
rated offense, and averages 322 rushing yards per game. California has the #103 rated rush defense,
and allows 204 rushing yards per game.
That doesn’t seem like a good matchup for the Golden Bears defense. I think it’s a tremendous opportunity for the
Air Force offense though.
California is a passing team. The have the #5 rated pass offense, and the
#86 rated rushing offense, but the passing game is so strong that they have the
#8 overall rated offense. This is a team
that averages 370 passing yards per game, and they do have a NFL caliber QB
running the offense. Air Force counters
that with the #23 rated defense overall, and they measure out defending the pass
better than the run.
I’m going with the rushing team that plays defense and
taking the points with Air Force. In the
bowl games that I’ve seen so far, passing teams have been slow out the gate as
the timing has been disrupted from such a long layoff. With the fact that Air Force defends the pass
well anyways is a plus. You also know they will be ready as a disciplined
military program, which is another plus.
I just don’t see California being able to blow this team out. Good Luck, and check for other bowl games.
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