Tuesday, December 29, 2015

College Football Armed Forces Bowl free pick

No official picks yesterday, so still standing at 4-3 in Bowl Games so far.  We have a few good ones today, and I’m starting with the Armed Forces Bowl.

Air Force (+7) vs California
Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth, TX
Those that have been with me for a while, know that I like teams that can play defense and run the ball.  It’s usually a good formula for winning spread bets.  In the Armed Forces bowl we get a team that fits that criteria in Air Force.  We also get the points.  Air Force has the #2 rated offense, and averages 322 rushing yards per game.  California has the #103 rated rush defense, and allows 204 rushing yards per game.  That doesn’t seem like a good matchup for the Golden Bears defense.  I think it’s a tremendous opportunity for the Air Force offense though.

California is a passing team.  The have the #5 rated pass offense, and the #86 rated rushing offense, but the passing game is so strong that they have the #8 overall rated offense.  This is a team that averages 370 passing yards per game, and they do have a NFL caliber QB running the offense.  Air Force counters that with the #23 rated defense overall, and they measure out defending the pass better than the run.


I’m going with the rushing team that plays defense and taking the points with Air Force.  In the bowl games that I’ve seen so far, passing teams have been slow out the gate as the timing has been disrupted from such a long layoff.  With the fact that Air Force defends the pass well anyways is a plus. You also know they will be ready as a disciplined military program, which is another plus.  I just don’t see California being able to blow this team out.  Good Luck, and check for other bowl games.

No comments:

Post a Comment