NFL week 15

Wow did Tampa shoot themselves in the foot on Thursday or what?  They made a valiant effort at the end, but dug the hole a little too deep to start with.  That starts us off at 0-1 on the week, and under .500 on the season by 1 game.  Let’s get back on track today with some winners.

Buffalo at Washington (+3):

I’ve continuously been a backer of Washington at home this season, as that is where they have performed the best, and I’ve been rewarded.  Last week I went against the Redskins on the road at Chicago, and they got their second road victory of the season.  They needed a Gould missed field goal at the end though so the game wouldn’t go into overtime.  I was also a backer of the Bills last week against the Eagles, and they came up short.  It wasn’t for a lack of chances though, they just couldn’t capitalize on them and let the Eagles get the win and the cover.  I’m going back to Washington at home as an underdog, especially getting the full field goal.  At home the Redskins are averaging 132 rushing yards and 253 passing yards per game, while only allowing 101 rushing and 223 passing.  That’s a 61 yard advantage in each game.  If you win the yardage game, you usually win the overall game.  They also sport an average margin of victory of 6 points per game at home.  Meanwhile the Bills average margin of victory on the road is 1 point, and they only outgain opponents on the road by 6 yards per game.  This is also the 6^th road game in 7 weeks for Buffalo, and I imagine the extra travel is finally taking its toll on this Bills team.  I’m taking the home team and the points.

Chicago (+5.5) at Minnesota:

Yes I know that Minnesota made a great showing against a better team last week on national television while on the road.  Yes I know they have a few extra days rest since they played last Thursday.  Yes I know the Bears have laid an egg the last 2 weeks.  Yes I know the Bears let me down last week.  But despite all that, I’m backing the bears again this week on the road.  Especially getting more than a field goal.  While Minnesota is a run first team, and the Bears have struggled at times in stopping the run, I’m actually looking at the passing game in this one.  The Vikings struggle to pass the ball rated #31 and the Bears defend the pass well with the #2 rated pass defense.  The Vikings have also struggled to keep Bridgewater upright the last few weeks, and are #26 in sacks allowed this year.  That all helps this Bears defense, as they’ve really been getting after the QB the last few weeks with 14 sacks in the past 4 weeks.  Finally this is a divisional game, and those are usually close games.  The Bears kicking game cost them the past 2 weeks, with Gould missing the game winning field goal against San Francisco 2 weeks ago, and then the game tying field goal last week for overtime.  He is a better kicker than that, and I’m banking on him bouncing back this week.  Finally, on the road the Bears average score is a tie while being outgained by 24 yards.  The Vikings are averaging losing by 2 at home while being outgained by 63 yards.  I’ll take the points in this one.

So that’s it for this week, 2 underdogs.  Good Luck