NFL week 13

Last week was a great week with a 4-0 mark, bringing the season total to 24-23, finally back above .500.  Looking to continue that momentum this week, but slim pickings out there.  To bet on the hottest teams right now you’re going to have to lay some heavy chalk.  I’m not sure that I’m willing to do that, even though some of those matchups are extremely tempting.  I do have 3 games that I like more than others, and I’m making them my picks for the week.  Don’t get suckered into some bad bets this week, play smart.

Houston (+3.5) at Buffalo:

Houston has been absolutely lights out on defense in the past 4 games.  Here are the total yards allowed in their past 4 games; 211, 256, 267, and 268.  They’ve won all of those games by at least 4 points, with the margin of victory being 14, 4, 7, and 18.  I won with them here last week at home against New Orleans, and I can’t see any reason to not take them again this week.  Everybody thinks defense when speaking about Rex Ryan, but the Bills have left some things to be desired on that side of the ball this year.  They’re allowing over 250 yards passing on the season, and 287 at home.  That’s great news for this Houston offense that is averaging 260 passing yards per game, and have one of the best WR in the league in Hopkins.  Even if this Bills do score enough to keep this close I expect it will come down to a last second field goal to determine the winner in this one, and that means take the points. 

Arizona (-4.5) at St. Louis:

I hate road favorites, but I don’t see any reason to avoid this one.  Arizona has one of the best defenses in the league.  St. Louis has had success running the ball since Gurley started playing, but they can’t pass for shit.  Arizona will be able to stack the box and take away the run without a problem, similar to what has happened to the Rams the past 3 weeks.  St. Louis did win at Arizona earlier this year, but that was then and this is now.  Arizona is averaging over 400 yards of offense on the season.  They perform slightly worse on the road, but they should be able to control the line of scrimmage in this game and come out with the victory.

Kansas City (-3) at Oakland:

Did I mention I hate road favorites?  Why am I taking 2 this week?  Kansas City is one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now.  They’ve ran off 5 straight wins, and just keep improving each week.  They’ve had a lot of success running the ball, and have over 150 yards rushing in each of their past 2 weeks.  You know what running the ball does?  It opens up the big play on the deep ball, as demonstrated by Jeremy Maclin last week, who is playing like his old self once again.  Oakland doesn’t do a very good job on defense.  They are better at slowing down the run, but atrocious when defending the pass, allowing 283 yards per game on the season.  You know who plays defense?  The Chiefs.  They are only allowing 241 yards in division play.  Pretty solid performance. 

Good luck this week.  Come back next week for more picks.  Also, check out my daily college basketball blog for free picks on that days games.