NFL Week 15 Thursday Night Football

I haven’t written about a Thursday night game in the NFL in a while.  In fact I think this is only my second time this season doing so, maybe third, but anyways it doesn’t happen often.  Normally my mind set is to save your chips for the weekend, especially with so many college games going on.  However, when a game like tonights presents itself as an early Christmas present, you just have to open it, and that’s what I’m doing.  Last week I went a disappointing 0-3, but I’m still .500 on the season, so just paying the vig.  Let’s get back to the right side of things starting tonight.

Tampa Bay at St. Louis (-2.5):

First things first, buy the half point and get Tampa Bay +3.  Now, here’s why.  These teams are very close to each other, except for one area, and Tampa Bay is much better in that area.  First, let’s talk about the similarities.  While Tampa Bay has the slightly better offense, both are built the same, run first.  Tampa has the #4 rush offense, while St. Louis has the #6.  In the pass game Tampa is #26, and the Rams are a woeful #32.  Those stellar (ha, see what I did there) passing games will be countered with the #13 pass defense for the Rams and the #20 for the Bucs.  So when looking at passing in this game, it appears to all be a wash. 

The key to this game is the rush defenses, and that’s because both teams are run first offenses.  St. Louis comes into the game with the #22 rated rush defense.  Tampa counters with the #8 rush defense.  Tampa is allowing less than 100 yards rushing on the season, and haven’t had the 90 number cracked in the past 3 weeks.  With the Rams unable to pass the ball, they can stack the box and take out the run even more.  I know the Rams ran for over 200 yards last week against the Lions, but I don’t care, in the 4 games before that they went 94, 82, 94 and 66.  Last week was an anomaly, and I don’t expect it to happen again.  Take Tampa and the points.

Check back for the weekend picks, and don’t forget to check out my college basketball blog, where I’m giving free picks daily.  You can find it on my website http://www.jamesonmillergreen.com/ under the basketball/freepicks link.  Good Luck tonight