College Football Hawaii Bowl

Off to a good start in bowl games.  Got a win a couple days ago with Toledo, taking bowl record to 3-1.  I have another pick for today, it’s the type of matchup I like to exploit.  There are no games tomorrow, Christmas Day, but there are a few on Saturday, so be sure to check back for those picks.  Anyways, let’s get to today’s pick.

Cincinnati vs San Diego State (-3)

Hawaii Bowl, Honolulu, HI

Okay, lets spend the extra couple of dollars and get this down to San Diego State -2.5.  Got it, good, now here’s why.  This game boils down to strength vs strength and a strength vs weakness.  That angle didn’t work out so well with App State, but it’s the type of play that wins more than it losses, and is worth revisiting.  Cincinnati has a great offense, averaging 559 yards per game.  Their defense isn’t as good though, allowing 414 yards per game.  They specifically struggle with stopping the run, as they are allowing 190 rushing yards per game, and it’s worse when they play on the road.  San Diego State has a power defense that is only allowing 288 yards per game.  They have a mediocre offense though, averaging 378 yards per game.  The bright spot, and this is the strength vs weakness, is that the Aztecs rushing attack is very strong.  They are averaging 235 rushing yards per game, and they have 3 games this season with 300+ yards rushing.  It’s the type of team you want to gamble on.  They run the ball, controlling the clock and the game.  They also play hard nose defense, and just shut their opponents down.  What’s not to like about that.  Throw in the fact that Cincinnati is allowing 190 rushing yards per game, and I have no doubt that San Diego State will be able to run at will on these guys. 

A few other notes on this.  Much shorter flight and distance to travel for San Diego State than Cincinnati.  Travelling west is easier than traveling east, but Cincinnati has to travel through a lot of time zones, and will have like a 6 hour time difference.  The other thing is, I’ve noticed that passing offenses have taken a little longer to get going in bowl games this year, as they have fallen out of sync.  The defenses and running games are staying strong though.  That is a huge benefit to San Diego State as they are a rush team that plays defense while Cincinnati is a pass team that doesn’t play defense.  I’m going big on San Diego State.

Good luck today.  Check back for more games later in the week.