NFL week 14

It seems like it has been a while since I’ve talked about football.  I guess it’s only been a week, but I was writing about football almost daily for 12 weeks straight.  Now that college football is over that has obviously been pared back to NFL only, but bowl season is upon us, and I’ll have to get back into the groove of things again.  Anyways, last week I went 2-1 with my picks, giving me 25-22 record on the season for NFL games.  I’m looking to expand on that this week, but before I do that a few words of caution.

Last week I talked about lines that looked too good to be true, I didn’t call out any teams in particular, but when I wrote that I had the Panthers and Patriots in mind.  While it’s easy for me to say that now, knowing what happened, you’re probably reading this and saying ya right asshole.  That’s fine, I don’t care, but I know I stayed away from those 2 games and I made money last week.  Did you?  If you followed me you did.  I bring this up because once again some lines seem to good to be true, and Carolina is another one of those games.  Yes the Panthers are undefeated and have cashed a lot of tickets for their backers this year.  However, the lines are over inflated at this point in time as the public is just following them blindly.  The guys that run the sports books in Vegas are smart guys, they know when to make the adjustments, and that is what has happened the past few weeks with this team.  Will/Can the Panthers win/cover this game, sure they can, but any given team in any given week can do that. 

Another word of caution is on the Seahawks.  It is hard to lay points on the road, traveling all the way across the country with an early start time.  It’s really hard to lay double digit points on the road across the country.  If Clausen is the the QB to play for Baltimore then you have a more legitimate chance of covering this spread with Seattle, but if he’s not, your chances decrease, a lot.  So please just don’t blindly bet Seattle, make sure you know who is playing first.  Now on to my picks.

Buffalo (+1) at Philadelphia:

Yes, I know that the Eagles beat New England on the road last week, but I don’t care.  Yes, I went against Buffalo last week with Houston, but again I don’t care.  It’s all about this week, and this week I’m taking the Bills and the point.  When looking at the Eagles at Patriots game, I’m not sold on the performance of the Eagles.  They were actually out gained by 179 yards, as they only managed 248 total yards.  The only reason the Eagles won that game was because of 3 defense/special teams touchdowns.  What are the chances of that happening again?  Not very likely at all.  The only positive take away I have for the Eagles in that game is the 33 rushing attempts, as I’ve been saying all season they need to run the ball more.  Now the Eagles are dealing with distractions, with Murray unhappy about his role in the offense and the return of McCoy to the Linc with the Bills.  Speaking of McCoy, he should have a huge day, as the Eagles have the #27 rated rush defense, while the Bills have the #4 rated rushing offense.  I’m looking for McCoy to get a double dose of touches this week, and the Bills to run all over the Eagles on their way to victory.  Good chance this line moves and you get more points, but it doesn’t matter, as I don’t think you need the points in this one at all.

Washington at Chicago (-3.5):

First, spend the extra $10 and get the Bears -3.  Got it, ok.  There has been a number of times in the past postings that I’ve stressed not to over react to last week, but to consider the whole body of work of a team.  That is a great lesson this week, as the Bears are coming off a heart breaking loss to the 49ers last week, in overtime, on a deep ball.  The Bears actually had a chance to win the game, but missed a field goal as time expired.  The Bears had the yardage advantage though, finishing +73 in total yards.  The Redskins are coming off of short rest, as they played Dallas on Monday night, and have to travel.  They will be looking to get the bad taste of last week out of their mouth, but it will be hard to do, as the Redskins road woes this season have been well documented by all.  In fact on the road this year the Redskins are being out gained by 151 yards per game, and have particular trouble in stopping the run.  Washington has been more reliant on the pass this season, but they are facing the #2 passing defense in the league this week, and that is even better at home as the Bears are only allowing 186 passing yards per game at home.  Bears all the way.

Oakland at Denver (-6.5):

This was the toughest game to pull the trigger on, but I’m doing it anyways.  I’m backing the Broncos for 2 reasons.  The first is the fact that they have the best defense in the league.  The second is the running game this team has played with since Manning has been out.  In the past 3 games the Broncos have rushed 36, 32 and 39 times for 170, 179 and 134 yards.  It’s been a 2 headed monster accomplishing this between Hillman and Anderson.  Oakland is a pass first team, and actually have the #8 rated pass offense in the league.  They will be tested this week as the Broncos have the #1 rated pass defense, and the #1 rated sacks defense.  This team knows how to get to the QB, and I expect Carr to be dealing with a lot of pressure this week.  I’ll take the Broncos, under a touchdown at home.

Good luck this week, and check back to see if I have a pick for the Monday night game.