College Football Bowl Games, December 26, 2015

The bowl season has been good to us so far, with a 4-1 record.  We didn’t have any games to watch yesterday, but there are 6 games being played today.  Before I get into my picks and game insights I want to give a word of warning.  Just because there are 6 bowl games, and they are staggered starts (so you can watch them all) don’t bet on all of them.  If you don’t have a strong feeling/suspicion about a game, just leave it alone.  Find the 1 or 2 games that you feel the most comfortable with, and hammer them.  With that said, let’s talk bowl games.

Southern Miss (+8.5) vs Washington

Heart of Dallas Bowl, Dallas, TX

The last time Southern Miss played, I picked them against Western Kentucky in the Conference USA championship game.  That play didn’t work out, as Western Kentucky showed up in the 2^nd half and ran away with the game.  WKU really needed to get the offense going in order to come back in that game, they also benefited from winning the turnover battle by 3.  That wasn’t a typical performance by Southern Miss, and I’m looking for them to bounce back this game against Washington.  Both teams have highly rated defenses, with Washington rated #29 in rushing, #55 in passing and #28 overall.  Southern Miss is rated #34 in rushing, #65 in passing and #39 overall.  So you can see they have similar defenses.

The key to this game is the offenses.  Washington is rated #93 in rushing and #54 in passing for a #71 rating overall.  Southern Miss has a potent, well balanced offense with the #42 rushing rating, #12 passing and #10 overall.  While Washington’s defense is probably going to give Southern Miss some trouble in the passing game, it’s the rushing game I’m looking at.  On the road this season, Washington has allowed an average of 171 rushing yards per game.  That plays right into Southern Miss’s hands as they are averaging 192 rushing yards per game.  That high average for Washington rush defense isn’t because of 1 or 2 games either.  Here are rushing yards allowed for all away games: 185, 190, 188, 144, 148, and that last one was against Oregon State, who was one of the worst teams in the nation this year.  I know they have better rushing statistics overall, but that’s because of Sacramento State getting 11 rushing yards and Washington State getting 31.  Sacramento State is an FCS school, and Washington State is the “air-raid” offense that is pass, pass, pass and pass again.  I’m going with the team that can run the ball, against the team that has troube in stopping the run.  Oh and Washington has to travel 2,108 yards for their bowl game, while Southern Miss only has to go 490 miles. 

UCLA (-6.5) vs Nebraska

Foster Farms Bowl, Santa Clara, CA

This game is one that I’ve been targeting since the matchup was announced.  While most people have been saying don’t overlook this Nebraska team, I’m telling you to do exactly that.  Nebraska has the #37 rated offense, but that is lopsided and pass heavy as the rush offense is rated #73 and the pass is #30.  UCLA counters that with the #24 rated offense, but are more balanced with the #49 rush attack and #24 pass attack.  To me this is a benefit to UCLA as in all the bowl games I’ve seen so far, defense and running have been way ahead of passing.  Nebraska relies on the pass a lot.  Now let’s look at defense.  Nebraska is rated #8 in rushing defense, but #123 in passing defense for an overall rating of #72.  That’s not good, because when UCLA gets it’s passing game going, Nebraska won’t be able to stop them at all.  UCLA on the other hand has the #89 rush defense, but they also have the #41 passing defense for a #63 overall rating.  Nebraska needs the pass on offense, and UCLA’s better on passing defense.  That is another benefit for UCLA.  Finally, UCLA has to travel 345 miles, not far.  Nebraska has to travel 1,647 miles.  I’m going with the Bruins in this game.

Good Luck today.  Come back for my NFL picks.  Also, I’ll continue to provide bowl game insights and free picks as I see good opportunities arise.