It’s been a while since I’ve written about
college football. In fact the last time
I did was Championship weekend, and that didn’t go so well for me. It started out looking good, but then things
took an ugly turn for the worst and I ended up with only 1 win on the day. On the season as a whole, my record is
71-60-5, for a 54.5% win percentage. Not
great, and definitely short of my 58% goal, but still making money. In fact if you bet 110 to win 100 on every
game I recommended you would be up $500 right now. Not getting rich, but cash in pocket for
Christmas presents at least. Anyways,
lets get back to football. I have 3
picks for todays games, here are the breakdowns.
New Mexico (+9) vs Arizona:
New Mexico Bowl, Albuquerque, NM
Arizona dropped 4 of their last 5 games and ended up in the
New Mexico Bowl. New Mexico won 3 of
last 4 in order to reach this bowl, and it is on their home field, so they have
an advantage there. Bowl games are
usually an area of pride for teams, and great for coaches to get those extra
practices in for the young guys next year.
However, this bowl represents the opposite ends of the spectrum for bowl
teams. Arizona doesn’t want to be here,
they’d rather be playing in a bigger bowl, while New Mexico is happy to be here
as they haven’t been bowling in a while.
Neither team has a very strong defense, but New Mexico gets the slight
edge with the higher ratings. On
offense, New Mexico has the #8 rush offense, and that’s because of the option
that they run. Arizona runs a pretty
balanced offense, but Solomon their QB is questionable for this game because of
a concussion. While Arizona has had
extra time to prepare for the option offense, this will be the first time they’ve
faced it this year, and that usually doesn’t go well for teams, especially ones
that allow close to 200 rushing yards per game.
Stopping the run hasn’t been a strong suit for them all season, and I
have no reason to believe that they will start in this game. Look for New Mexico to be able to run run run
the ball, and keep this close on their home field.
Appalachian State (-7.5) vs Ohio:
Camellia Bowl, Montgomery, AL
First things first, buy the half point so your only laying
the TD. Ohio has played well at the end
of the season to get into a bowl game, winning their last 3 games, but those
games came against bottom feeders and a Northern Illinois squad that was down
to their 3rd string QB on the season. App State has performed well all season, and
come in with the #6 rated rush offense.
In fact Appalachian State is averaging over 470 yards of offense on the
season, and are only allowing 318 for a 152 yard advantage. That type of yardage advantage works out to
more than a 7 point win. In fact App
State has an average margin of victory of 19 points per game. Finally, after all the accolades I’ve given
their offense, the defense has played even better, with the #12 rated defense
in the nation. They perform well against
both the run and the pass. App State all
the way.
Louisiana Tech (-1.5) vs Arkansas State:
New Orleans Bowl, New Orleans, LA
Neither team needs to travel very far for this bowl game,
but the fact that Louisiana Tech gets to stay in state has to be an
advantage. Also the fact that they enter
this game with the #15 pass offense averaging 312 passing yards per game,
against the #97 rated pass defense that is allowing 252 yards per game. I don’t see Arkansas State being able to slow
down let alone stop the La Tech passing attack.
On the other side, Arkansas State depends on the run, as they have the
#15 rated rushing offense. However, they
will be facing a stingy run defense as La Tech is rated #9 against the run. While overall these teams are closely rated,
you have a strength versus weakness for La Tech and a strength vs strength for
Arkansas State. With the line less than
a field goal, I’m taking the strength vs weakness, and recommend you do the
same.
Bowl season is in full swing, so check back often for daily
updates. Also, make sure to check out my
college basketball picks page, I have 10 picks for today. And look for my NFL picks to come soon. Good Luck today.
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