College Football Orange Bowl

Got back on the right track yesterday as backers of Mississippi State.  That win brings bowl record to 5-4.  It’s New Years Eve, which means we have 4 teams battling for the national championship starting tonight.  It’s a night I’ve been waiting for.  I’m anxious to see both games, but I’m particularly interested in the Orange Bowl.  Here are the game insights and a free pick for the Orange Bowl.

If you like college basketball or just looking for more action, check out my free picks in my college basketball blog.  You can find them HERE

Oklahoma (-3.5) vs Clemson

Orange Bowl, Miami, FL

Well Clemson did it, they ran the table and burst into the playoffs.  Well they were the number 1 ranked team by the committee all season.  Not saying they were wrong, Clemson definitely is deserving, but I don’t believe they are the best team.  I believe they are playing the best team.  So, first things first, buy that half point and get Oklahoma -3.  Now here’s why.  It’s not that I disrespect the ACC, but much of the argument that I laid out yesterday about going against North Carolina State applies.  Sure Clemson went undefeated, but who have they really played?  Sure they beat Notre Dame, but that was by 2 at home, and they needed help at the end.  In that game they were outgained by 136 yards, but they won the turnover battle by 3 in that game, and were lucky to survive.  They beat Florida State by 10, but that game was also at home.  Against FSU they had 151 more yards, but it was winning the turnover battle that really sprung them to victory.  When you look at the road games they played in, they really only dominated 1 game and that was the 58 point victory over Miami Fl.  They beat Louisville by 3, NC State by 15, Syracuse by 10 and South Carolina by 5.  In the ACC championship game they beat North Carolina by 8. 

Now let’s take a quick look at how the ACC teams have done in bowl games so far.  Miami FL lost to Washington State.  Duke beat Indiana by 3, but needed overtime to win that shoot out.  Virginia Tech squeaked out a 3 point victory against Tulsa!  Pittsburgh was blown out by Navy.  North Carolina was beaten by Baylor, and a 3^rd string QB.  NC State got smoked by Mississippi State.  Finally Louisville beat Texas A&M, but that was after the Aggies had 2 QB’s transfer after the season.  To say that is unimpressive is an understatement.

Why Oklahoma?  Well a few things.  They have a dominate offense that averages 543 yards per game.  Sure that was overall, but on the road they averaged 490 yards, so not much of a fall off.  They have an average margin of victory of 25 points per game overall and 26 points per game on the road.  They had to play at Tennessee, at Kansas State, at Baylor and at Oklahoma State.  They also played at Kansas, but they suck and don’t count as a football team.  The computer ratings say that on a neutral field Oklahoma should be a -6.5 point favorite.  At -3, that’s 3.5 points of value.  I’m throwing my weight behind the Sooners.

Good Luck today, and be sure to check back for other bowl games.