NFL week 12 Sunday

Got off to a good start with a Bears win and cover as an underdog on Thanksgiving day.  All 32 teams are in action this week, so we have 12 more games on Sunday and of course 1 on Monday night.  I have some more matchups that I like.

New Orleans at Houston (-3):

New Orleans is entering this game off a bye while Houston is off big wins in it’s last 2 weeks following their bye week.  Houston has actually won 3 in a row, and the defense has finally stepped up, and performed to pre-season expectations the past few weeks.  Houston has the #8 rated defense, but more importantly it has the #5 rated pass defense.  We all New Orleans likes to pass the ball, and they enter this game with the #2 rated pass offense, so Houston will need to have that pass defense on alert.  In it’s past 3 wins, Houston has allowed less than 200 yards passing to, and that includes Cincinnati’s potent passing attack 2 weeks ago.  Speaking of passing, Houston has the #6 rated passing offense, and Hoyer is back this week after missing last week with a concussion.  DeAndre Hopkins has been playing like a man possessed this season, and he gets to feast on the #31 rated pass defense that the Saints have.  The Saints defense has been so bad they fired defensive coordinator Rob Ryan.  Go with the hot team, at home and lay the short field goal in this one.

New York Giants at Washington (+2.5):

You know the drill, spend the extra couple of bucks and get the full field goal for Washington +3.  We’re talking about a home dog in a divisional game.  When I saw this matchup I thought of 2 weeks ago when Washington hosted New Orleans and how they torched that shitty pass defense.  Guess what, the one team with a worse pass defense this year than New Orleans is the New York Giants who are allowing 311 passing yards per game.  Sure the Giants are coming off a bye, but it won’t be of much good in this one.  The Redskins are a completely different team at home, and are 4-1 straight up in home games this season where they’ve outscored their opponents by an average of 27-18 and out gained them by 80 yards.  The Giants are more of a passing team now, but the Redskins are only allowing 208 passing yards per game at home, and they held the Saints pass happy offense to under 200 passing yards.  Take the home divisional underdog in this one.

Miami at New York Jets (-4):

Another game featuring a New York team, but this time I’m going with the guys that play in Jersey.  Miami has really struggled all year, and while they’ve won 4 games, their statistical performance is very unflattering.  They have the #26 rated offense and defense, and are allowing 180 rushing yards to divisional opponents.  I took the Eagles a couple weeks back against Miami expecting them to run the ball 40 times.  They didn’t and Miami won the game.  My logic for taking the Jets is basically the same, except this time I have a proven run first team, and they sport the #5 rated defense in the league.  In divisional games this year the Jets have only allowing 286 yards of offense on average.  This is also the Dolphins 5^th road game in the past 7 weeks.  I don’t care if these guys are professionals, that type of travel will affect your play.  I’m taking the Jets, and their defense at home in this one.

That’s 3 picks for Sunday.  Check back for a complete Monday Night game breakdown, and maybe a pick, not sure yet.  Good Luck this week.

College football week 13 Saturday Selections

It’s the last full week of college football, which means a lot of rivalry games being played.  Taking the points is usually a good thing in rivalry games, as they are normally hard fought battles.  I’m in a hard fought battle this week, as I already find myself 0-2 on the week after Friday games.  While there is a full slate of great games on tomorrow, there isn’t much value available in terms of gambling.  I only found 4 games that I like for tomorrow.

Cincinnati at East Carolina (-1.5):

Cincinnati struggles on the road, and struggle to stop opponents on defense.  They are allowing 491 yards per game on the road.  In their road games so far this year, they beat Miami Oh by 4, you know the Miami Oh team I’ve gone against a lot this year, successfully.  They lost to Memphis by 7, BYU by 14, Houston by 3 and then last week they lost to South Florida by 38.  They do a better job of slowing down the pass game, but let teams run all over them.  East Carolina needs this game to become bowl eligible, and I expect them to give a max effort.  That effort along with Cincy struggles on the road leads me to go with the home team.

North Carolina (-4) at NC State:

North Carolina damn near gave away the game to Virginia Tech last week.  I mean they tried really really hard to, but ended up squeaking out a 3 point win in overtime.  North Carolina has it’s own playoff hopes, as they only have 1 loss on the season, and have the ACC championship game next week.  If they want those playoff hopes to come to fruition then they need to win this game, as well as upset Clemson next week.  They certainly have the offensive fire power to do so, with a top 20 rated team in the nation.  They do struggle to stop the run on defense, but have a very good pass defense.  They are also playing for revenge as NC State kicked their ass last year.  Look for UNC to take this one big.

Kansas State (-20) at Kansas:

Ah Kansas, the shitty team that couldn’t.  They are a bottom 10 team in the nation, and they are only averaging 300 yards per game in conference play.  Their defense on the other hand is allowing 594 yards per game in conference play.  That’s nearly a 300 yard difference.  Kansas State needs to win this game, and next week against West Virginia to extend their season.  Kansas is 0-11 on the season, and are just trying to find some semblance of pride, but they won’t find it here.  With Snyder as the head coach of Kansas State they have won this game 16 of the past 17 times straight up and against the spread.  That’s nothing to sniff at.  Look for them to make that 17 of 18 this week.

Air Force (-10) at New Mexico:

You know what Air Force does?  They run the ball (#3 in the nation) and they play defense.  That’s my recipe for success when it comes to football.  They have the #12 rated defense in the nation and are allowing under 350 yards in total defense.  New Mexico is also an option team, and that helps Air Force as they are ready to stop it.  However, New Mexico has a hard time stopping opponents on defense.  They are rated #98 overall and are giving up 195 rushing yards and 270 passing yards in conference play this season.  With Air Force averaging nearly 400 rushing yards per game, and New Mexico not able to stop the rush, I’m calling for Air Force to run all over the Lobo’s.

Good luck this week.  Next week will be slightly different as we have a few season finale’s for some conferences and conference championship games, so not a lot of games.  Check back later for NFL picks, and of course I have my daily college basketball selections.

College football week 13 Friday

I hope everyone had a happy thanksgiving.  If your day was anything like mine you ate to much, and drank to much, and had a hard time keeping your eyes open after the turkey was done being consumed.  Gotta love a good food coma.  This isn’t our typical Friday lineup of football games.  Normally we only get 2 games at night, and I give insights into both games and sometimes talk myself into making a bet on one of the games.  This week we have a whole slate of football games and they start at noon.  It’s like a mini Saturday.  There are 15 games playing tomorrow, which is too many for me to give insights for, so I’m only going to talk about the games that I like, which only happens to be 2 of them.  There were others that I was intrigued by, but not enough to put my money behind them.  Remember, sometimes the best bets are the ones you don’t make.  Let’s get to it.

Iowa at Nebraska (+2):

Iowa has already clinched a spot in the Big Ten championship game, and is fighting for a spot in the playoffs.  Nebraska is trying to become bowl eligible, and must win this game in order to extend their season.  Nebraska is also coming off of a bye, and get to play at home, so they will be fresh and ready to rock.  Iowa is travelling on short rest, but coming off of 2 straight home games.  Before last weeks 20-point win over Purdue, Iowa was in a couple of battles against Indiana and Minnesota.  Iowa is definitely a power rush team, but unfortunately for them that makes them one dimensional.  They are actually averaging more rushing yards per game in conference play and on the road than passing yards, and usually call twice as many run plays as they do pass plays.  That plays right into Nebraska’s hands as they have the #9 rated rush defense in the nation and are only allowing 101 rushing yards per game at home.  Iowa also has a strong rush defense, but Nebraska is more of a passing team in Mike Riley’s offense than a running team.  As the season has progressed, Nebraska has looked better each week in Riley’s offense, and with Armstrong healthy and leading the team they shouldn’t have any problems moving the ball in this game.  This game should be a battle, and come down to the wire.  In those instances, I like to take the points or the home team, in this case I get to do both.  Nebraska +2. 

Western Michigan at Toledo (-8):

Both teams are entering this game off of a bye, but in the week before Toledo won while Western lost.  When it comes to backing a team, I like teams that can run the ball, especially when they are playing a team that struggles to stop the run.  Toledo is averaging 215 rushing yards on the season, and that number goes up to 232 at home and 247 in conference play.  Western Michigan is allowing 250 rushing yards per game while playing on the road, and in their last game at Northern Illinois they allowed 289 rushing yards.  They’ve done better in defending the pass, but not that much better allowing 220 yards per game overall.  Toledo counters that averaging 247 yards overall.  So to me that all boils down to Toledo being able to move the ball at will and run the offense that they feel comfortable in.  Western Michigan does have a strong offense as well, but Toledo will be able to take away the run as they are only allowing 115 rushing yards per game overall, which is well below the 202  yards that WMU is averaging.  As long as Toledo can take away the run, they shouldn’t have any trouble winning this game by double digits.  They will be able to run the ball, control the clock, and keep the fans into it.  I’m backing Toledo at home.

Check back tomorrow for the Saturday Selections, and be sure to check out my college basketball picks, as I’ve been on a tear winning 71% of my bets over the first 3 days I’ve made selections.