NFL week 7

Last week was a nice little turn around week, going 3-1 with the only stinker being on Thursday night.  Sure the 2 games I said I was also interested in were busts, but that’s why they were just interests and not picks.  Luckily I was smart enough to leave them alone in real life too.  On to week 7 though, which gives plenty of opportunity, and some games that look great but are to uncertain.  For example, look at Cleveland at St Louis (-6.5).  Based on running the ball this looks like a great spot for St. Louis, but Cleveland has found a way to stay in every game this year, and St. Louis defense has looked spotty at times.  Or the Houston at Miami (-4.5) game, that looks like to many points based on Houston being able to throw the ball, and Miami struggles to stop the run.  But this Miami team is playing with a sense of urgency, and I’m not sure which Miami team will show up in this one.  Anyways, on to the picks.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City (-3):

I don’t know why KC is favored in this game.  In all of my ratings systems Pittsburgh should be the favorite.  It’s hitting a key number in 2 of my 5 systems too.  Landry Jones stepped in and performed well last week after Vick got hurt.  Leveon Bell is a workhorse that will make Jones’ job easier.  Add in deep threat Bryant being back fully and this is a Steelers offense that I wouldn’t want to face right now.  Kansas City is dealing with troubles of their own, Charles is gone for the season and the 2 headed monster they want to replace him with doesn’t seem to bring as much punch to the table.  Add in the injury to Maclin and that basically leaves Kelce as the only weapon.  The Steelers should be able to handle him without a problem.  Do you trust Alex Smith to throw the ball 30+ times and lead the Chiefs to victory by more than 3 points?  I don’t.

Atlanta (-6) at Tennessee:

This was a bit cheaper of a line earlier in the week when Mariotta still had a chance to play.  He’s out, Mettenberger is in and the line is now -6.  That’s okay.  Atlanta has stalled out on offense the last couple of weeks, and stunk it up last week against New Orleans.  That was a Thursday night game though, so they have more time to prepare.  Tennessee’s offense has looked good at times and other times not so great.  They should have some trouble running the ball as Atlanta might have the best rush defense in the league.  Part of that could be due to the offense getting out to big leads and forcing opponent to pass the ball, but it doesn’t matter as Tennessee has struggled to run anyways.  Just saying it won’t improve this week.  As long as Atlanta can hang on to the football they shouldn’t have any problems putting the Titans to bed this week.

Tampa Bay at Washington (-3):

The Redskins haven’t played as bad as the record would indicate.  They had some trouble stopping the run the last 2 weeks, but those were road games, and against teams with top 5 rush attacks this season.  At home they have been much better only allowing 76 rush yards a game.  The offense also plays better at home averaging 157 on the ground and 223 in the air.  They’ll be without Jackson again on offense, but he hasn’t played all season so no big deal.  Tampa Bay is terrible on defense, they actually make other teams offenses look good.  They are coming off a bye, but that won’t help them much.  The offense has played better of late, but that’s because they stopped throwing the ball so much and went more with a ground game.  When Winston isn’t throwing interceptions they have a chance to win.  Look for Washington to stop the run and force Winston to beat them.  He hasn’t done that yet this year, no reason to expect him to start this week.

Philadelphia at Carolina (-3):

This is the Sunday night football game, and it’s my best play of the week.  Take the Eagles and the points.  The Eagles have gotten the offense going the last few weeks with over 500 yards against the Saints and 425 yards last week against the Giants.  Sure the Panthers have played well on defense this year, but they are susceptible to the pass as they are allowing 241 a game overall but 275 at home.  Somehow Cam Newton keeps finding ways to win, and if he keeps this up he might prove to be the best player in the NFL.  At some point though his luck will wear out.  I expect it to start this week, as I don’t believe that the Panthers offense has the ability to keep up with the Eagles offense.  Especially if the Eagles keep running the ball.  So far this season in the 3 Eagles wins they’ve rushed the ball 39, 34 and 37 times.  In their 3 losses this season they’ve only rushed 16, 17 and 18 times.  Look for them to keep feeding the 3 backs they have and to run to victory this week with the upset.

Good luck this week, and remember to play responsibly.