NFL week 5

NFL week 5.  It’s been a crazy season so far.  A lot of over reaction to the past week, and not enough attention to the body of work.  I too am guilty of this.  Last week my picks went 2-4, giving me an overall record of 9-11.  That fucking stinks.  There was no reason for me to pick 6 games.  Especially with as many favorites as I included.  I knew better than that.  One of the dogs I picked I am constantly over rating, Houston.  I made the mistake of backing Oakland, under the impression that Clausen was playing, he didn’t Cutler was back.  But a team traveling east back to back weeks and a favorite, I know better.  Hell everybody knows better.  The one silver lining is that the games I’ve been BIG on the past few weeks have come out winners.  Gotta build on something I guess.  So with that said, here are my picks for week 5.

San Francisco at NY Giants (-6.5)

We get the Giants at home laying less than a td, to one of the most dysfunctional teams in the NFL this season.  Yes San Francisco opened the season with a nobody saw it coming win against Minnesota, but they haven’t done shit since.  They are being outgained by almost 90 yards a game, and for some reason they’ve stopped running the ball, which is what this team was built to do.  You can’t put the ball in Kaepernick’s hands and expect him to win games for you, hell against Arizona he almost completed more passes to the other team (4 int’s) than he did to his own teammates (9).  The Giants on the other hand collapsed in the first 2 games of the season, but have rebounded well in the last 2 games.  The are allowing 70 rushing yards per game, but are giving up 316 yards through the air.  Lucky for them the 49ers aren’t a passing team.  While they’ve been outgained every game, the past 3 have been by 14, 30 and 10, so a couple of plays at the most.  They are winning the turnover battle though and are +6 on the season, the 49ers are -5.  Throw in the travel to the east from the west and this is setting up nicely for the G-men.  I’m BIG on the Giants.

Arizona (-3) at Detroit:

I was against Detroit last week, willing to lay double digits with Seattle.  I didn’t expect the lions to force so many fumbles.  I figured Seattle would hold onto the ball better than that.  Now Detroit is coming off short rest playing Monday night in the far west.  Arizona is going on the road for the 2^nd time this year, last time they did that they won big at Chicago.  Judging that Arizona disappointed last week as a pick of mine, and Detroit won going against another pick, it’d be easy to flip the script and take the home dog.  But I’m going to do something I hate, take the road favorite.  If you look closer to the game against the Rams last week, Arizona outgained them by 119 yards, but lost the turnover battle losing 2 fumbles and having an interception in the end zone.  They also stalled out in/near the red zone having to settle for 5 field goals.  If 1 of those FG’s was flipped for a TD it would’ve been a completely different outcome.  Detroit simply isn’t running the ball this year, averaging only 17 attempts per game.  That’s not how you win in the NFL, you need to establish a rush, ask the Eagles.  Arizona is running the ball 28 times a game for 122 yards, and Detroit is used to seeing a lot of runs with the defense facing 31 attempts per game for 111 yards.  Detroit will have a hard time throwing the ball against this stingy Cardinal passing defense, allowing less than 200 passing yards per game.  All in all you have a stingy defense up against an impotent offense and a power offense against a porous defense.  Don’t over react to one week, stick with the Cardinals here.

And that’s it.  I’m taking 2 games this week.  I’m still looking over the Monday night game, so check back for the Monday Night Chaser play.  Good Luck as always.