Last week
I went with 2 picks only, and split those games 1-1. I finally took a loss on a game that I was
BIG on, with the NY Giants. I went with
the Falcons on Thursday, talking about the run game and how they’ve dominated
on the ground so far this year. I didn’t
think special teams would be the problem, nor did I think that Brees would have
his best game of the year. Some things
you just can’t forecast, and it goes to show that past results are not indicative
of future performance. Or at least that’s
what all the commercials for financial advisors say. Anyways, I found a few more games that I like
today, so let’s get to it.
Cincinnati (-3) at Buffalo:
This is a pick that I always dread, the away favorite. When it comes to the NFL I prefer underdogs
to favorite and home teams to away teams, but sometimes you have to bet outside
your comfort zone. The Bills are playing
admirably this year, and the defense has been the key to keeping them in the
games they’ve played. The offense has
been stagnate this year, and the only reason their averages are so high is
because of the 2 games against New England and Miami. Last week was a pathetic game offensively for
them, they did manage to put something together at the end and pull out the
win, but against just about any other team they would’ve lost last week. It looks like Manuel is playing QB this week,
not impressed. And they’ve had a lot of
injuries to running backs, and stud WR Watkins has been hobbled this year. I’m not sure what offensive weapons they are
going to be able to use. The Bengals on
the other hand have been dynamic on offense, and last week they figured out a
way to come back against Seattle in the 4th quarter to force
overtime and steal the win. Sure they
were at home and Seattle made the long trip east, but this team has been strong
all year. Dalton has thrown for over 300
yards the last 3 weeks, they are outgaining their opponents by an average of 50
yards per game, and are winning by an average margin of 10 points. While this game will probably play out closer
than most of us expect, I do believe the Bengals are the side you want to be
on, and laying a field goal isn’t that bad.
Kansas City at Minnesota (-3.5):
First things first, buy the half point to Minnesota -3, then
hit it BIG. Minnesota has been a good
team playing under the radar all season so far.
Add in the fact that they are coming off a bye week, and they look even
better. Peterson has shook off the rust
and is averaging just shy of 100 yards per game, but if you take the first game
out of the equation (only got 31 yards) then he is averaging well over 100
yards in last 3 games played. The other
thing I love about this Vikings team is that they run a perfectly balanced
offense, averaging 28 rushing attempts per game and 29 passing attempts. The only bad game they’ve played all year was
week 1 at San Francisco, and in week 4 they traveled to Denver and kept in
inside the number only losing by 3. That
game surprised a lot of people, not me.
Kansas City is in a downward spiral.
They lost Charles last week for the year with a torn ACL. To add insult to injury they blew a 17-3 lead
at home against the Bears and lost 18-17.
They did miss 2 field goals in that game, but one of them was for like
67 yards which didn’t stand a chance anyway.
Finally KC has been throwing the ball way to much, and not running the
ball enough. Last year when KC had
success they ran the ball and then ran it some more, but this year they are a
passing team. Sure they got Maclin on
the outside looking good and Kelce at tight end hauling in passes, but do you
really trust Alex Smith? I don’t. Minnesota at home BIG.
Chicago at Detroit (-3.5):
Let’s go Bears! They
have surprised a lot of people this year, myself included. They pulled off the upset last week at KC and
knocked a lot of people out of survivor pools.
Jay Cutler is back and throwing the ball well, but the thing that gets
me the most is the balance they have shown the last 2 weeks with the same
number of rushing attempts as passing attempts.
This means they aren’t abandoning the run, even if they fall
behind. That is extremely important in
keeping a defense honest. Detroit on the
other hand is simply playing terrible.
They’ve had 1 good game (2 weeks ago at Seattle, but that was because
they forced a lot of fumbles), and 1 good half in week 1 at San Diego. Detroit hasn’t ran the ball very much this
year, only averaging 17 attempts per game.
They have attempted 110 passes in the past 2 weeks, and threw the ball
69 times in week 1. They actually pulled
Stafford from the game last week because he stunk so bad. They will struggle to get going against this
Bears defense, as they are only allowing 305 yards per game, and they did hold
Rodgers to 189 passing yards in week 1.
Finally throw in the fact that this is a division rivalry game and
normally a close game and taking the points seems like a no brainer. Look for the Bears to get the upset and their
3rd straight win.
So those are the 3 games that I like the most. There are a few other games that I do like,
but not really as high on. Those games
are Washington +7 at NY Jets and Seattle -7 vs Carolina. The NY Jets have been a very strong team this
year, especially on defense, but Washington has kept every game close and has
had a chance to win each game. Some how
they just find a way to stay in it, so that’s worth a look. Carolina doesn’t really have much going on
offense outside Newton, but traveling all the way across country to face Seattle,
the 12th man and a stout defense doesn’t necessarily make the stars
align there. I think this game will play
out more like Seattle vs Chicago game than anything. Maybe not a complete shut out, but a large
margin of victory as this will be the best team Carolina has faced so far and
first trip out of the Southeast this year.
As always good luck, and play responsibly.
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