NFL week 4

Last week was a pretty good week, went 4-2 overall, but the Chiefs laid a stinker on Monday night, so I have a bit of bad taste in my mouth from that.  It’s a new week though, and with a new week come new games and lines and opportunities.  So let’s see where this weeks value lies shall we.

NY Jets (-1.5) vs Miami (in London):

This game comes down to 1 thing, running the football.  We know the Jets are a running team, and they can run very well.  Miami is not so much a running team, and even worse, they have a hard time stopping the run.  Usually when you have a team that can run the ball going against a team that can’t stop the run, they pile on and pound the ball down their opponents throat.  Sure the Jets got away from the run last week, but that was because they got into an early hole against the Eagles and had to get out of it.  The Dolphins just haven’t been impressive so far this year with the ball, and it’s not like they’ve faced a killer schedule either.  Miami has relied to much on the pass this year, but the Jets have a very stingy pass defense.  Look for the Jets to blow out Miami in London.

Houston at Atlanta (-6):

This was a tough game to gage, but I’m going to pull the trigger on Houston and the points.  The Texans haven’t really played up to expectations this year, but they are improving on both sides of the ball every week.  They are on a key number in 3 of my 5 rating systems.  Houston does a good job of controlling the game and the ball by running a lot.  They are averaging 30 rushing attempts per game.  The Falcons are averaging the same number of attempts, but they are in the second week without Coleman, and could use another runner to split the carries with Freeman, who did a fantastic job last week, but that was against a porous run defense of Dallas.  The key to this game will be Houston’s pass defense and if they can slow down Julio and the Falcons passing attack.  Atlanta is averaging 305 yards per game through the air, while Houston is only giving up 224.  Look for Houston to have better success than Atlanta’s other opponents in slowing down the pass, and for them to control the clock with the run.  The Texans keep it close.

Oakland (-3.5) at Chicago:

First, spend the money and buy the half point so you get Oakland -3.  Oakland is on a key number in 2 of my 5 ratings systems, and they have looked very potent on offense this year.  They took advantage of Baltimore and Cleveland the past 2 weeks, and while the Bears are playing strong in the passing game, that’s more of their opponents running the ball because they have the lead and want the game over.  Chicago’s offense has been horrendous this year, and Clausen has not played well while filling in for Cutler.  I’m not a fan of laying points on the road with a normal bad team, but Chicago is quite possibly the worst NFL team I’ve seen in a while.  Of course with that said they will probably have best game of season this week, but I doubt it.  Oakland offense is too strong, and Chicago is not built to win a shootout.

Kansas City at Cincinnati (-3.5):

Just like Oakland, buy this down to -3.  I was back and forth on this game.  I’ve been a supporter of the Chiefs this year, and they’ve let me down both times.  They won’t fool me a 3^rd time.  I thought with the addition of Maclin, that the Chiefs would throw the ball better, but they haven’t.  They are still a one dimensional team that is afraid to go deep.  Alex Smith played the same way in San Francisco and I don’t think he has the cajones to throw the ball deep in this league.  He is constantly looking for the check down.  Which is good for tight end and running back, but does nothing to stretch out the defense.  Cincinnati has done a fantastic job on offense, and are actually running the ball more than they throw.  But that has made the passing game even more effective and they are averaging over 400 yards of offense per game.  The Bengals defense has also been stout against the run, which is KC’s bread and butter.  Look for Charles to struggle getting anything going in this game and the Bengals coast to an easy victory.

Dallas at New Orleans (-3):

This is not the Saints team of the past couple of years.  This team can’t do anything on offense.  They wanted to get to more of a running team, but that hasn’t worked out well for them and they are throwing the ball way more than running.  Probably has something to do with building a hole and having to climb out of it in each game.  Sure Dallas is without Romo, but they need to run the ball anyways to be effective.  The Saints haven’t been able to stop the run very well this year allowing 126 rushing yards per game.  They are also having problems stopping the pass, so the defense is struggling all around.  Look for Dallas to go with a double dose of running the ball this week, and for them to get the win.

Monday Night Football:

Detroit at Seattle (-9.5):

I will write up a full length post for this game later, but let’s just say I’m BIG on the Seahawks at home against Detroit.  The Lions are inept on offense, and that won’t get any easier in Seattle.

Good Luck this week.