College football week 6 Saturday

 Yay for the weekend.  I love Saturdays, get some chores done, and then watch football all afternoon and night.  Throw in a little action on top and you get magic.  I’ve decided I’m only going with 5 games this week.  I gave you 1 already with USC playing Thursday night.  Here are my 4 picks for Saturday.  Do check back though, as I might throw out a few bonus picks after wrapping up my NFL work. 

Syracuse at USF (-2.5):

I noted this as my pick of the week in my Thursday/Friday game blog as a bonus at the end.  I’m BIG on Syracuse.  USF has only beaten an FCS foe so far this year.  They had best opportunity against FBS versus Memphis last week at home off a bye.  That didn’t happen.  Syracuse has been playing strong all year.  It is their first road game of season, but they are coming off a bye and get fully healthy for this road trip.  Last game was at home against LSU, and they played real tough.  Normally the game after a big game like that would be a let down, but not with a bye in between.  My computer agrees and doesn’t think there is any way that Syracuse should be an underdog in this game.  I’m either completely missing something, or this will be the easiest money ever made. 

Louisiana Tech (-11.5) at UTSA:

I’ve been going against UTSA all year, with success.  Hit a stumbling block last week with UTEP and 4 extra turnovers, but hell even a blind dog finds a bone every now and then.  I’m going against them again this week too.  Simulations show La Tech winning by 19 points, so at the current line there is plenty of value to be had.  La Tech is averaging 500 yards on offense and giving up 377.  Tech is +1 on turnovers on the season while UTSA is -4, even after winning the turnover battle last week +4.  Their offense is struggling, averaging roughly 360 yards per game.  Driskell is leading the charge for La Tech, and finally playing like the folks down at Florida thought he was going to play.  Look for Tech to pound the shit out of UTSA.

Kent State at Toledo (-14.5):

This line is way to short, way to short.  Simulation have this pegged closer to a 24 point win for Toledo.  Naturally my advice is to buy the half point so it’s 2 touchdowns only.  The only bad game that Toledo has played was against Iowa State, but that was after that huge performance the week before at Arkansas, so a let down was expected.  They left everything on the table for that game, even held the Razorbacks rush attack to 103 yards.  There was thinking that Kent State could be a contender in the MAC after performance at Minnesota.  Since then we’ve seen that Minnesota was grossly over rated to start the season.  The lost to Marshall 2 weeks ago but beat Miami OH last week.  That Miami OH team is one of the 10 worst in all of FBS football, and they only won that game by 6, at home.  Just saying.

Navy at Notre Dame (-14.5):

Like the Toledo game, this line is too short.  Also like the Toledo game, buy it down to 2 tds.  Better safe than sorry.  My ratings system has this game more around 3 td victory for Notre Dame.  They’ve been undervalued ever since Zaire got injured.  Kizer has performed admirably in his absence.  Navy runs the option offense, but Notre Dame is already prepared for that as they face it a couple times a year, and have already played a much better Georgia Tech option team.  Notre Dame hasn’t had any trouble running the ball this game, and against the only running team they’ve faced, Navy allowed over 200 yards rushing.  Last week against Clemson, Notre Dame was done in by the 3 extra turnovers.  Look for ND to bounce back with a statement this week in preparation for next weeks game against USC. 

There are my 4 Saturday picks for now.  Check back to see if I have any bonus picks.  Good luck this week.