College Football week 7 Thursday

Week 7 kicked off on Tuesday night with Arkansas State traveling to South Alabama.  I broke down that game and correctly picked Arkansas State to win and cover getting me off to a good start for the week.  There are 7 games being played before we get to the weekend.  As usual I will break down each game and give my picks if I like any.  Hint, I like a couple of them.  For now I’m talking about the Thursday night games.  Let’s get to it then.

Thursday Night

Auburn (-2.5) at Kentucky:

This should be a great game.  This game is an intersection of a team on the rise and another on the fall, or at least for this season.  Auburn has struggled all year, and our being outgained by opponents.  The win over San Jose State is misleading if just looking at score, as they were the benefit of winning turnover battle by 4 in that game.  They are allowing 210 rushing yards on average, which will help the Wildcats as they run the ball 36 times a game but are only averaging 3.8 per carry.  Kentucky’s defense has been stout all year, which isn’t good for Auburn who has struggled moving the ball this year.  This game is going to be a coin flip, and in that situation you gotta take the points.  I’m siding with Kentucky here, buying up to 3, and making it a pick for this week.  Well between me starting to write this and ending it the line has moved to Auburn -1.5.  At that line I still find value with Kentucky, but that is basically a pick em line.  You decide.

Western Kentucky (-33) at North Texas:

This line is blowing up as it opened at -29.  North Texas just fired it’s head coach this week, and they’ve been getting blown out in every game this week.  The blow out last week at home against FCS Portland State was the straw that broke the camels back for the head coach.  Western Kentucky can score with the best of them, and hasn’t had trouble putting teams away.  The problem is that this is a lot of points, and Western Kentucky has to travel to LSU next week.  North Texas will also want to make a statement that they are better than their performance the past few weeks.  I know WKU will win, but not sure if it will be by 5 tds or not.  Passing on this game.

UCLA at Stanford (-6.5):

Naturally, there was an over reaction to Stanford losing on the road to Northwestern in week 1.  Those thoughts have been put to bed with the performance of both teams since then.  Stanford has taken care of business every week so far.  As an added bonus you get them laying less than a td at home.  That’s great news.  This game really boils down to running the football, a favorite statistic of mine.  Stanford is averaging 210 rushing yards per game, and have gone over 300 yards in each of their past 2 games.  UCLA meanwhile is allowing 197 rushing yards on defense.  This will be the best defense that UCLA will have faced all year, so will be tested.  I expect Stanford to run the ball up and down the field on them without a problem.  They will control the game and the ball and wear down the UCLA defense.  That will allow them to put this game away.  I’m making Stanford a pick for this week.

Okay there is Thursday night.  Three games and 2 plays.  Good Luck.  Friday and Saturday games to come.  Like the Kentucky game this line moved to that aforementioned Stanford -7.  Still a good play.