College Football week 5

College Football week 5 Saturday.  Last week we got back to winning ways with a 4-3 week.  I really didn’t want to include Ole Miss in my picks, when reviewing a final time I switched from green to yellow.  But I wanted 7 games, so I played it and that cost me.  I didn’t include any yellows this week.  I already took Temple for Friday in my weekday posting earlier this week.  So that’s one game.  I have 8 more for Saturday, so without further ado.

Minnesota at Northwestern (-3.5):

I like Northwestern at -3.5, but play it safe and buy down to -3.  Based on ratings Northwestern should be a -5 point favorite, and they get a few for home field.  Both teams have played very well defensively with Northwestern only giving up 266 yards per game and Minnesota isn’t much worse at 312 yards.  This is only the second time that Minnesota has traveled this year, and they found themselves in a battle at Colorado State.  Northwestern has ran the ball very well in every game this year, and the passing game has steadily improved.

Mississippi State at Texas A&M (-6.5):

I like Mississippi State at +6.5, but it’s better to have that full touchdown, so buy the half point for +7 if you want.  Texas A&M hasn’t looked that great since week 1 win over Arizona State, but then again ASU hasn’t been very hot this year at all.  They were clearly over rated in the pre-season.  Meanwhile Mississippi State has exceeded expectations this year.  The fought back against LSU, and shut down their passing attack.  Then last week on the road took care of Auburn.  I don’t normally follow ATS trends on teams, but here are 2 that are hard to ignore.  Texas A&M is 1-8 in SEC play as a favorite while Mississippi State is 9-2 as an underdog in conference play.  I think those trends continue after this game.

Nebraska (-6.5) at Illinois:

I don’t have to tell you about the half point, you get it by now.  Illinois should be a 3 point dog at the most, and then you throw a few points in for home field and this should be more like a pick em game.  Illinois is averaging around 400 yards per game, while Nebraska is giving up an average of 450, so the Illini should do just fine on offense.  Nebraska’s offense has been even more potent, with 520 yards per game, but the Illinois defense is only giving up 300, so that will be an interesting battle.  I’m willing to bet that Illinois at home can hold Nebraska offense in check just enough to keep this real close and take it to last team to score type of situation.

Ohio State (-22) at Indiana:

You know Ohio State just hasn’t been that impressive this year.  They have struggled on offense, and haven’t been able to put teams away like they should.  They do have a big target on their back being the defending champs and all, but that is no excuse.  Indiana has done a good job of taking the ball away from their opponents at +6 on the season, while OSU is at -1.  The real test will be OSU run game against this Hoosier defense, as OSU is averaging 232 on the ground and IU just gives up 139.  I think this is another game that OSU can’t bury the opponent, I’m taking the home team and the points.

Washington State at California (-18):

This game lost a little luster from the opening line, but there is still plenty of value to be had on Cal in this game.  Golf is exceeding expectations, and the Bears offense is averaging 543 yards per game.  Their defense has been playing very well too, with only the game at Texas where they struggled.  Cal is +6 in turnovers while WSU is only +2.  WSU hasn’t really played anyone yet, with toughest game being a road trip to Rutgers, and we all know what is going on at that school.  I just don’t see WSU getting up and matching Cal in points in this game.

Vanderbilt at Middle Tennessee (-1.5):

I went against Vanderbilt last week with Old Miss, and it cost me.  This week I’m going against the Commodores one more time.  Middle Tennessee is averaging 493 yards per game while only allowing 359.  Vanderbilt is averaging 414 and giving up 321, so these teams have had similar performance so far.  Vanderbilt has risen to the occasion when facing SEC foes, but have sunken to competition when facing others not counting game against FCS Austin Peay.  MTSU takes care of business every week.  They destroyed the opponents they should Jackson St and Charlotte, they’ve also fought hard on the road against Alabama and Illinois, covering both spreads.  Now they get to host Vandy.  I have MTSU rated as a 2.5 point favorite on a neutral field, and you need to toss them a couple for home field advantage, so that’s all just added value.  MTSU all the way.

UTSA (-3.5) at UTEP:

UTEP should not be an underdog in this game.  The ratings I have on these teams are very close together, and even with a modest 3 points for home field for UTEP, they should be favorite by a point or 2.  Added bonus, you get 3.5, so even if they lose by 3 you still get the cover.  UTSA is a young team, and while they fought Arizona hard in the season opener, they haven’t played at that level since.  UTEP is dominate at home, with only loss in last 8 home games to Texas Tech.  These teams are not only in the same state, but the same conference.  So this is a rivalry.  Always take the home underdog in a rivalry, they usually win.

Notre Dame at Clemson (-1.5):

Ah they final game.  I’ll just say this, Notre Dame shouldn’t be an underdog.  If they are, it’s because Clemson gets massive points for home field as I have Notre Dame rated as a field goal better.  Clemson defense has played well, but hasn’t really been tested as 2 of their 3 games have been against Wofford and App State.  The defense is also young with most of it’s talent from last year now playing in the NFL.  Notre Dame has been in battles this year, and have found a way to win the tough ones.  It’s also not like Notre Dames defense hasn’t been around this year.  They’ve shut down some pretty good teams, and the offense hasn’t fallen off at all since Zaire was injured.  In fact I think Kizer has them playing better.  He will be making his first road start, but ND runs the ball so well that he will be fine.  Kelly is a great game caller, and will have a good strategy in place to help the young QB.  Take the Irish.

Good luck this week, and check back soon for week 4 NFL picks.