Last week wasn’t a bad week, but it wasn’t a
great week either. When the dust settled
my picks went 4-3 giving me a season total of 31-29-3. Here we are in a fresh week with the Thursday
and Friday night games kicking off the weekend.
As usual I will talk about all the games and include a pick if I think
it’s worthy.
Thursday:
Georgia Southern at Appalachian State (-6.5):
If you’re looking for offense, this is your game. GSU is averaging 465 yards per game, with
most of that coming on the ground as they are an option team. App St is averaging 490 yards per game, and
are pretty balanced but have more yards on the ground. On the other side of the ball both teams have
been pretty stout against the run, but against the pass App St has better
success. Not that it matters in this
game as Georgia Southern is run first, second and third type of team. Both these teams are fairly new to FBS play,
and have somewhat of a rivalry going.
GSU won last year in first meeting as FBS teams. It’s a short week for both teams as they both
played on Saturday. I calculated the
line to be real close to the current line, with slight value on the App State
side. Previous games with same value
have performed well, but not well enough for me to put my money behind. Plus I’m not convinced that they will be able
to shut the GSU offense down.
Temple at East Carolina (-3):
Temple is off to a great start this year, but I’m not sure
how they are scoring as the offense has been stagnate only averaging 340 yards
a game. They are allowing less than 300
yards per game, but are only +1 on the season in turnovers. However, on the road Temple hasn’t been as
good on defense allowing roughly 450 yards a game. ECU is giving up as many yards as they get
about 425 on both sides. If past results
are indicative of future performance than I’m lead to believe that Temple will
allow ECU to move the ball with ease, but will be able to get their season
averages on offense. That probably won’t
be enough to win the game though. The
last time Temple faced an offense this potent was in week 2 at Cincinnati which
they won, but were the beneficiaries of a lot of Bearcat turnovers. I’m making East Carolina a pick, I talked
myself into it.
California at UCLA (-3):
This should be a great game, and a hard fought battle as
these teams are built very similar and are rated almost the same. Any points that UCLA are favored by is home
field adjustments only. It’s just a
matter of how many points you want to assign UCLA. Phil Steele rates their home field as 5.5, so
if that’s the case then there are a few points of value left in that. This game can go either way, and I’m not
willing to throw my backing behind either one.
Just enjoy this late night battle.
Friday:
Memphis (-10.5) at Tulsa:
This is another game that based on ratings and home field
adjustment this game is pretty accurately handicapped. Memphis has no problems moving the ball on
offense with over 525 yards per game. They
can’t stop the pass if their lives depended on it though. Tulsa is allowing over 500 yards on defense,
so don’t expect them to slow down Memphis’ attack. The question in this game is if Tulsa’s
offense can keep up. I think they can,
and their performance so far indicates they can as well with over 500 yards per
game. Memphis does benefit in the
turnover market though as they are +4 on the season while Tulsa is even. Depending on whether Memphis can win that
battle this week or not will go a long way in determining on if they cover this
game or not. This seems like a lot of
points to get while at home against a team with a poor defense. The over/under is 75, so 11 touchdowns to
cover that. Both teams are averaging
scores less than that total, so even Vegas is expecting a shoot out. No pick on this game.
Utah State (-5) at San Diego State:
I was a backer of San Diego State last week at San Jose
State. This week I’m going against them
and taking the road favorite. Based on
ratings this should be closer to 10 point line, so depending on how many points
you give SDSU for home field will decide how much you lower it. I’m looking more at the Fresno State game 2
weeks ago for USU than the game last week against Boise State. Against BSU they benefited from winning the
turnover battle by 7! That’s a lot of
mistakes by BSU, so we can’t read to much into that game. Fresno State is a more realistic matchup, and
it’s a like opponent for both teams. San
Diego State played Fresno State at home 3 weeks ago and won 21-7. USU played them 2 weeks ago on the road and
won 56-14. In both games the teams out
performed Fresno in all statistical categories, but Utah State was able to turn
those yards into points. I’m picking
Utah State to win and cover.
Good Luck and come back soon for the weekend picks.
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