College Football week 8 Saturday

Earlier I wrote about the Thursday and Friday night games, giving 2 picks.  For Thursday I backed ECU at home against Temple.  That didn’t work out so well, so currently sitting at 0-1 on the week.  I have Utah State tonight, but I took them at -5 and the line has moved to -3.5 before settling at -4.  That sucks, but nothing I can do about that, well except hit it again at a lower number.  Anyways, keep scrolling down to hear me talk about those games, but for now I want to talk about Saturday’s games.  Lots of good games on the docket, and I have 9 games for you. 

Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois (-28):

This is a game between opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to the MAC.  And in the case of EMU they are bottom 5 in the country.  EMU is allowing over 500 yards per game on defense, and 345 of those are on the ground.  That plays in the favor of NIU that averages 428 yards per game.  Basically there is no way EMU stands a chance of stopping this NIU offense.  So can EMU score with NIU?  I don’t think so, but you might think different.  Last week at Toledo, EMU was outgained by 158 yards and lost by 43 points.  Now they have to travel to NIU and play a better team and keep it closer, not happening.  Lay the heavy chalk and count the cash.

Toledo (-14) at UMass:

This is another game of opposite ends.  UMass cannot stop the run, they are allowing 231 rushing yards per game.  Toledo runs for 205 yards per game on average.  Toledo is good at stopping the run, but that doesn’t matter as UMass hardly runs the ball.  In the past 3 games Toledo has only allowed 182 passing yards per game on average, so that doesn’t bode well for UMass.  Toledo will use that ability to run the ball to their advantage.  They will keep pounding it and wear them down.  Then they’ll run some more and put the game away.

North Texas at Marshall (-28):

I think this is currently at -28.5, so buy the half point and get 4 td handicap.  North Texas is the worst football team in the nation.  They fired their head coach a few weeks ago too.  Marshall has gotten the offense going the last couple of weeks, and will get one hell of a jump start this week.  North Texas is allowing 560 yards per game.  Marshall is 4-1 against the spread this year, and has covered all 3 at home.  Add in the fact that North Texas is 1-4 ATS this year, and has yet to cover on the road this season and I’m hitting Marshall up.

Northwestern at Nebraska (-7):

Tale of 2 teams heading in opposite directions.  Northwestern hasn’t looked the same since Michigan took it to them 2 weeks ago in a 38-0 beating.  Last week was just as bad losing 40-10 at home against Iowa.  They were outgained by an average of 250 yards in each of those games.  Nebraska is getting it going, sure they have a losing record, but those losses are by the following points: 5, 3, 1, and 2.  That’s 4 losses by a total of 11 points.  The bright spot all season for Nebraska has been the run defense only allowing 91 rush yards per game.  That’s not good for a team that depends on the run like Northwestern does.  Northwestern is giving up 158 rush yards per game, and that jumps to 190 per game in conference play.  That’s good for Nebraska who is averaging 195 rush yards per game.  You put a fired up home crowd behind them, and Nebraska playing for a bowling game and this spells trouble for the 3^rd week in a row for Northwestern.

Iowa State at Baylor (-37.5):

This looks like a huge line in the middle of the season, but it’s not big enough.  Think of these 3 teams; Baylor, TCU and Texas Tech.  Of those 3 teams who has the best offense?  My money would be on Baylor.  Now the past 2 weeks Iowa State has gone against Texas Tech and TCU.  They lost by 35 at Texas Tech and by 24 at home against TCU.  Iowa State is 1-4 ATS this season, and has yet to cover a game on the road or as an underdog.  Baylor is 4-1 ATS, undefeated at home and 4-1 as a favorite.  Baylor wins big.

Old Dominion at Florida International (-14):

Speaking of bad teams, Old Dominion is a bottom 10 team.  Sure they have won 3 games, but those wins were against Eastern Michigan, FCS Norfolk St., and Charlotte.  The 2 FBS teams are bottom 10 teams too, so ODU can only beat teams on it’s level.  Throw in the fact that ODU has yet to cover a game this year, while FIU is hitting 2 out 3.  Look for FIU to take it to the Monarchs in this game.

Hawaii at Nevada (-7):

I went with Nevada last week as a road favorite against Wyoming, and it didn’t work out that well for me.  I’m going back to the well with Nevada this week, but this time I get them at home.  Hawaii is giving up 227 rushing yards per game and Nevada is averaging 207 yards per game.  Hawaii is also struggling on offense, only averaging 289 yards per game.  Hawaii is a bottom 20 team in the nation.  Look for Nevada to run run run on the rainbow warriors.

Washington State at Arizona (-7):

Okay this is currently sitting at 6.5, so need to spend the money to get Washington State +7.  Arizona is only 1-4 ATS this year while Washington State is 4-1.  WSU has covered in all 3 road games they’ve played, while Arizona has only covered 1 time at home.  Washington State has a very explosive offense that will require Arizona to score to keep up.  While Arizona might be able to go punch for punch with this team, I don’t see them pulling away at all, and I suspect this will come down to whoever scores last.  In those situations you want the points.

Kansas at Oklahoma State (-34.5):

I spoke about opposite ends of the spectrum in the MAC well here it is in the Big 12.  Kansas is the worst team in the Big 12, and OK state is one of the better ones.  They don’t get much attention, but they are also undefeated, averaging over 450 yards per game and only allowing 330.  Kansas on the other hand is averaging 375 per game but giving up over 560 yards per game.  They actually have worse averages in conference play.  Look for Oklahoma State to make a statement with a big win in this game.

Good Luck this week.  Remember to tip your dealer.