NFL week 6 Thursday Night Football

I haven’t done much Thursday night NFL action so far this year, choosing to concentrate on the Thursday and Friday night college games instead.  I’m ahead of the curve this week in getting my shit together, so I actually had a chance to review tonight’s game between Atlanta and New Orleans, so here is the game breakdown, and a pick!

Atlanta (-3.5) at New Orleans:

This is currently being offered at even money on Atlanta -3.5, so buying it down to -3 won’t cost you any more than is usually does.  That is what I did, as I prefer Atlanta over New Orleans in this game.  Atlanta hits a key number in 2 of my 5 systems that I’m using, and in a 3^rd and probably most accurate system it’s showing tremendous value.  I recently ranked each team based on YTD statistical performance, and Atlanta comes in as my number 4 ranked team while New Orleans is ranked 18^th.  If you’re a regular reader, then you know I like to back teams that can run the football, especially against teams that struggle to slow down the run.  Atlanta is averaging 126 rushing yards a game, while New Orleans is giving up 136.  If you look the other way, New Orleans is only averaging 85 rushing yards a game, while Atlanta is allowing 78.  Advantage Atlanta.  Also, if you look at attempts, ATL is averaging 31 rushes per game while NO is averaging 23.  On defense ATL is only facing 20 rush attempts per game while the Saints are seeing 30.  Double advantage Atlanta.  Everything about those 2 stat sets scream Atlanta.

When looking at the passing game, it’s clear New Orleans throws the ball to much, at least in comparison to how many times they run the ball.  They are imbalanced on offense, and need to pound the ball on the ground more to be effective overall.  Throw in the fact that Bree’s has been playing with a bum shoulder this year, and they should really being running the ball.  In the end, the Saints are throwing 41 times a game, but Atlanta is throwing in 37.  Based on how many more rush attempts a game the Falcons have compared to the Saints, you would think that passing number would be lower, but it’s not, that’s how efficient the Falcons offense has been this year, they are averaging 68 plays per game.  That’s a lot for NFL standards.  When looking at the passing yards it’s pretty much a wash as both teams are averaging and allowing about the same amount of yards per game.

In the end it comes down to being able to control the ball and the game.  You do that with the run.  As I pointed out earlier, that favors the Falcons.  While I hate playing road favorites in the NFL, sometimes all the data points say that is the correct play, and that is clearly what is happening here.  Take the Falcons, I already have.  Good Luck, and check back later for the rest of the NFL picks for Sunday/Monday.