There are 10 games between Thursday and
Friday night this week with 6 on Thur and 4 on Fri. As usually I will break down each game, but
with so many on deck I’m going to break out the 2 nights into separate
blogs. Here is the breakdown for the
Thursday night games. I think I have a
couple of picks here too. I’m not sure,
let’s see if I can talk myself into it.
North Carolina (-3) at Pittsburgh:
North Carolina has struggled to stop the run all season, and
they won’t fare much better this week on the road against Pittsburgh. The poor performance against the run wasn’t
limited to FBS opponents as the 2 FCS schools that UNC has faced this year ran
for 155 and 279. Sure they’ve limited
the passing yards, but nobody has needed to pass that much against them as
they’ve had success on the ground. The
Panthers are a run first team, so this fits right into their game plan. Let’s look at this from another angle. This is only the 2nd road game for
UNC this season. They week 1 game was on
a neutral field and they played at Georgia Tech in week 5. Other than that every game has been at
home. Pitt has done the complete
opposite, with this being only their 3rd home game of the season,
and their only loss was on the road to Iowa.
Oh and only 1 of the FBS opponents of UNC this season has a winning
record. Yet they are laying points on the
road, untested? Something is off here. You know what, I’m making this a play. Go Panthers!
Western Michigan (-20.5) at Eastern Michigan:
Rivalry game. This
game is all about running the ball. WMU
is averaging 177 rushing yards per game, but when you take out non conference
games that goes up to 263 yards per game.
EMU is allowing 342 rushing yards per game, but conference only games
they are allowing 281. Either way it looks
like WMU will be able to run the ball.
Oh and did I mention that EMU has the worst rated rush defense in the
nation? The question is will EMU be able
to counter with an offense of their own?
If they could pass the ball better I would say they had a chance, but
they don’t do that very well. I just
don’t see a way that EMU can keep this game close, but I’m also not positive
that WMU will be able to cover. I have
this game rated about the same as the line with a little value on EMU, but not
enough to pull the trigger. If you can
find a prop bet on WMU rushing yards, take the over.
Buffalo (-7) at Miami OH:
This is a battle between a middling team and a very bad
team. Miami OH is one of the bottom 5
teams in the nation. While I’m tempted
to just say pull the trigger on Buffalo, I think this game is a pass. The home/away splits for Buffalo this year
have been night and day with poor performance after poor performance on the
road. Just look at last 2 road games, at
Florida Atlantic in week 3 they were outgained by 200 yards, out first downed
by 14, but won the turnover battle by 4 and used that to their advantage to win
the game. Two weeks ago they traveled to
Central Michigan and was outgained by 222 yards and out first downed by
12. That time however they didn’t win
the turnover battle and lost by 37 points.
In last weeks win over Ohio, they were outgained in yardage, but won
again because of being +4 in turnovers in the game. It seems every other week is the opposite for
Buffalo in turn overs as their games have gone as follows: +3, -1, +4, -3, -1,
-3, +4. It’s time for another negative
number here I feel.
Texas State at Georgia Southern (-21):
I have Texas state at 1-4 ATS and unable to cover a game on
the road yet this season. I’m not sure
that is going to change this week, but I’m also not willing to lay the heavy
chalk with Georgia Southern either. I
was disappointed with the performance GSU put forth last week against App
State. I thought they would give a
better showing than that, but App State was able to hold this might rush game
in check for the win. I think that GSU
still has the best rushing attack in football, and I also think that Texas
State has probably the worst if not the 2nd worst rushing defense in
the nation. That should help GSU get the
motor going this week behind the triple option.
Actually you know what, I’ve changed my mind over the past 5 sentences
or so. I’m backing GSU this week,
they’re a play. They have a bye next
week, so they will leave it all on the table.
I also expect them to want to prove that they are better than the
showing put forth last week. GSU wins
big time.
West Virginia at TCU (-14):
This will be the 3rd road trip of the season for
WVU. The other 2 times didn’t work out
so well for them. They lost by 20 at
Oklahoma and then by 24 at Baylor. Do
you think they will keep this score closer than either of those games? They are coming off a bye, so will be fresh
and ready to go. Sounds good for TCU
right? Not so fast. The Horned Frogs have had trouble covering
the number this year as I have them at 2-4 ATS.
TCU is also coming off a bye, so will be rested and ready to go. WVU gives up a lot of passing yards,
especially on the road, which won’t be any help this week. I think WVU continues to struggle on the road
this week. Will they cover? I doubt it, but it’s not like TCU’s defense
has done a great job of stopping opponents this year as they constantly find
themselves in “last team to score wins” shoot outs.
Oregon at Arizona State (-2.5):
This is a matchup of 2 teams that haven’t lived up to
pre-season expectations. Although I
think Arizona State is doing a better job.
They have a couple of like opponents on the schedule already, with the
results being the same. Oregon played
Utah at home and lost by 42, while ASU went to Utah and lost by 16. Oregon traveled to Colorado and won by 17
while ASU hosed Colorado and won by 25.
I don’t think you can read to much into those except that maybe, just
maybe ASU had better showings. The Ducks
can’t stop the pass this year, and that is ASU’s golden ticket for the season. Both teams are coming off a bye. If this was on a neutral site I would
probably make this a pick em game or have Oregon favored by 1. Since it’s at ASU, and we adjust for home
field that changes things and the line should be pretty close to where it is,
ASU -3. Not a lot of value and 2 teams
struggling to find an identity this year.
Just enjoy this one but save your money.
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