College Football week 9 Friday night

Yesterday I posted about the 6 Thursday night games that are taking place.  Today I’m breaking down the 4 games to be played on Friday night.  Oh and I have another pick for you too.

Louisville (-12) at Wake Forest:

This game is all about defense, as that is the side of the ball that these 2 teams have excelled in this year.  Wake Forest was allowing less than 300 yards a game, until the past 2 weeks when they took on in state foes.  You’d think they would get up for the UNC and NC State games more than the others, but they didn’t and UNC went for over 500 yards and NC State was pretty close to hitting 500 too.  There are 2 games that Louisville has struggled this year on D, in week 2 against Houston’s spread attack and 2 weeks ago against Florida State.  In the FSU game they had some trouble stopping the pass, but it was tackling in that game that truly hurt them.  I have this game rated right around the current line, so not much value to be had.  The over/under is set at 42 points, so Vegas is expecting this to be a lopsided low scoring game. 

East Carolina (-7) at UConn:

Last week I was a backer of ECU, expecting them to have success against Temple on the ground.  Temple shored up the road rush defense for that game and left me with a losing ticket.  This week they face another team that has struggled against the run on defense in UConn, who are allowing 185 per game, but in conference play that jumps up to 231.  So this represents a great opportunity of getting things back on track for the Pirates.  Based on my computer results, I think this line is a little high and should be closer to 6, so a little value on UConn but not much.  In looking at ATS performance so far ECU gets the edge as they perform well on the road, but that’s as a dog and not a favorite. 

Louisiana Tech (-13) at Rice:

Get your popcorn ready for this one as these are 2 explosive offenses ready to put up points.  The difference is La Tech actually has shown the ability to stop opponents on defense, or at least slow them down.  Rice has not shown such abilities.  Rice has a hard time stopping the pass, and gives up a lot of passing touchdowns (20 so far this year), and that plays in La Tech’s hands as well as they are a passing team.  Driskell, ran out of Florida, has resurrected his career in Louisiana, and putting up the numbers everyone expected of him.  Look for him to continue that this week.  I’m taking La Tech and laying the road chalk.  Oh and the over should hit in this game too, just need 9 td’s and a field goal.

Wyoming at Utah State (-28):

I was a backer of Utah State last week and it cost me.  I went against Wyoming a few times this year and have had success in doing so.  The few times that Wyoming hasn’t covered this year I was on the other side.  About the only thing I’ve done right so far this year.  Yes, Wyoming is one of the worst teams in the nation, but 28 points worse than Utah State, I’m not sure.  Both teams have had success against the experts in the desert this year.  I’m staying away from this game.  It seems like a trap.  I’m not ready to get behind a bottom 10 team in the nation, regardless of how many points they are getting.  Finally, will Utah State bounce back from the embarrassing loss they took last week, or will they let that eat at them this week.  To many questions, not enough answers.

Good Luck, and check back for Saturday picks.