Friday, October 16, 2015

College Football week 7 Saturday

Well after Thursday night, I’m ready for the weekend, how about you.  That Auburn at Kentucky game was fantastic.  It’s too bad that Kentucky couldn’t pull it out, really would’ve loved to see them win the game, or at least cover for me.  If you were able to get in at 2.5 and buy up to to 3 then you were lucky.  I wasn’t as lucky.  It really hurt that Kentucky was intercepted at the beginning of the game when they were driving and on Auburn’s 8 yard line, but they kept it close just like I thought they would and had a chance to win at the end.  Stanford rolled over UCLA just like I said, splitting the night for me and starting the week 2-1 after winning on Tuesday night.  Time to get on to the Saturday games, here are my picks for this weekend.

Nevada (-6.5) at Wyoming:
First things first, Wyoming is bad, like bottom 10 of college football bad.  They have both played New Mexico at home, and we were backers of New Mexico in that Wyoming game.  Anyways, Wyoming lost by 10 at home to New Mexico while Nevada beat them by 18.  We were also backers of Eastern Michigan when they traveled to Wyoming back in week 2, so going against this team is nothing new to me.  If this was a neutral site, Nevada would be closer to a 11 or 12 point spread.  Wyoming doesn’t get anywhere near as many points for home field that would bring it down to under a touchdown.  Just take Nevada and thank me later.

Nebraska at Minnesota (-2):
On a neutral site, this would be flipped, and Nebraska would be favored by at least 3 points, so even after adjusting for home field, this should be closer to pick em, than Minnesota laying points.  Nebraska is definitely the better team.  They lost on a hail mary to start the season, almost came from behind after being down 3 scores 2 weeks later against Miami FL, lost on a last minute touchdown at Illinois, and then lost another squeaker last week home against Wisconsin.  This team is literally 5 game minutes away from being 6-0 instead of 4-2.  Minnesota hasn’t lived up to preaseason expectations so far this year.  Sure they held TCU to only 23 points to start the season, but they followed that up with a field goal win the next 3 weeks before being shut out at Northwestern and then blowing out Purdue.  Don’t read to much into that Purdue game though as they benefited from winning the turnover battle by 3.  Nebraska does a better job of protecting the football, and are fully on Mike Riley’s page now.  Look for Nebraska to pull the upset.

Akron at Bowling Green (-11.5):
This game will boil down to how well Akron’s defense holds up against the Bowling Green passing game.  Bowling Green’s is averaging 435 passing yards per game, but Akron is only allowing 225.  That will be the match up that determines the game.  Bowling Green hasn’t been able to slow down any team on defense and is allowing just shy of 500 yards per game.  Akron’s offense has really heated up the last few weeks, so I’m not expecting much of a yardage advantage for Bowling Green in this one.  If that is the case, then there is no reason to not take 11.5 points.  Look for this one to stay close, and probably within 1 score.  I’m going with Akron in this one. 

San Diego State at San Jose State (-2.5):
Okay, so you know the deal, buy this up to 3 and take the underdog.  San Jose State is not that much better than San Diego State.  These 2 teams are rated very closely to each other, and are not separated by 3 points.  This game comes down to running the football and being able to stop the run.  In this case San Diego State has a 2 headed monster at running back and are averaging 180 rushing yards per game.  Two weeks ago they rushed for 305 yards vs Fresno State and last week they ran for 218.  San Jose State allows 228 rushing yards a game, so look for San Diego State to be able to pound the ball down SJST throats and control the clock and the game.  On the other side, San Diego State does a very good job in shutting down the run, holding opponent to 104 rushing yards per game.  That doesn’t bode well for San Jose State who relies on the run to move the ball, as they typically call more rushing plays than passing plays per game.  I think this will come down to the wire, and I do believe that San Diego State can/will win. 


That’s 4 games for Saturday, and 7 games on the week.  Good Luck.  Check back for NFL picks soon.

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