I already gave 3 picks between the Thursday
and Friday night games, keep scrolling down for those games. Last week my Thursday and Friday picks went
0-2, my Saturday picks went 5-3-1, so my week was 5-5-1 and a season record of
36-34-4. I have 9 games that I like for
Saturday, so let’s get to it.
I’m actually going to start the weekly picks with a couple
of bonus picks. After initial review I
didn’t have a pick in any of these games, but upon closer inspection I think
they deserve some backing.
Syracuse at Florida State (-19.5):
A few things about this.
First, it would be better at +21, but around 20 points is still good
enough. Second, Florida State stud RB
Cook is not playing in this game, which was just announced today. Third, this line came down from -20.5 before
the Cook announcement. Florida State
gets it’s offense going on the ground, and that opens up the pass. Without Cook that will be difficult to do. Syracuse has covered 2/3 of its games this
year and ¾ on the road. Florida State is
coming off a devastating loss last week on a blocked field goal returned for a
touchdown. Normally this would be a good
spot to back the Seminoles, but they have a very big game on deck having to
travel to Clemson next week. That will
allow opportunity for a back door cover.
Grab the points with this one.
Western Kentucky (-24) at Old Dominion:
Similar to last weeks play where I was a backer of FIU
against Old Dominion I’m taking Western Kentucky in this game. Old Dominion is a bottom 10 team in the
nation, and they have yet to cover a spread this season. While the offense has picked up the last few
weeks, it’s still laughable as they can’t pass the ball at all. While Western Kentucky’s defense is nothing
to write home to momma about, they have a top 10 offense in the nation,
especially throwing the ball. They put
up points, averaging 41 per game this year and they protect the football (+11
in turnovers). Old Dominion does not
score very much, only averaging 19 points per game, and they can’t win a
turnover battle (-3 on season). Oh and
the offensive stats are over inflated by games against Eastern Michigan (bottom
5 team), Charlotte (bottom 6 team), and Norfolk State (an FCS school). They’ve lost to NC State by 24, App State by
49, Marshall by 20 and last week at FIU by 29.
South Florida at Navy (-7):
I was hesitant to pull the trigger on this game with Navy,
as I’ve been burned by USF a few times this year already. Deeper research though got me to change me
mind. While USF has been playing very
well the last few weeks, and showing steady progress as the season goes on,
this boils down to being able to stop the option attack that Navy brings to the
table. It’s a hard offense to stop, even
harder with only 1 week to prepare for it.
The coaching staff at USF doesn’t calm the nerves either as Taggart is
an offensive coach, and the defensive coordinator is from the SEC where they
play spread attacks, not options. The
fact that USF can’t stop anyone on defense on the road, allowing 460 yards per
game with 185 rushing, means that Navy will have no trouble running the ball
this week. This is the first ever
meeting between these schools, and first ever meetings with only 6 days to
prepare usually doesn’t end well when going against an option team like
Navy.
Maryland at Iowa (-17):
First of all don’t read to much into the Maryland vs Penn
State game from last week. Maryland
played the best game of their season last week, and it was coming off of a bye,
a head coach firing, and who knows what other crap. The point is, the team was focused and
prepared for that game, and it was against a Penn State team that isn’t really
playing all that well from a statistical stand point. Now Maryland has to go on the road and play a
top 10 team that is coming off of a bye.
That spells disaster. Iowa has a
top 15 team on defense, led by a top 5 rushing defense. The defense is only allowing 294 yards per
game, and that is the same figure in conference play. Oh and the rush offense is one of the best in
the nation as well. Iowa’s offense is
completely balanced at 214 rush yards per game and 207 pass yards per
game. While Maryland has had some
success running the football this year, they’ve had 1 good passing game all
season and that was in week 3 against USF, whose defensive struggles I outlined
a paragraph above. The rushing attack
for the Terrapins will probably have some trouble getting going this week as
Iowa only allows 74 rush yards per game, and that number drops to 61 in conference
play. I just don’t see anyway possible
that Maryland can keep this game close.
Iowa wins BIG.
And here are the 9 games that I was originally going to go
with, before expanding to add in the bonus games.
Rutgers at Wisconsin (-20):
Rutgers is a mess of a football team. Their season stats look good, but that’s
because of non conference play against bottom barrel school Kansas, an
improving Washington State (seriously different team than week 2 is WSU) and FCS
Norfolk State. In conference play they
are being out gained by 146 yards per game.
They are giving up 224 yards per game on the ground and another 305 in
the air. That’s 529 yards per game they
are allowing in conference play. Not
good when going to a team like Wisconsin that is built to run the ball, but has
had more success passing the ball this year.
Oh and Wisconsin is outgaining opponents by 127 yards per game. That includes it’s 2 losses. Speaking of those losses, they are against
Iowa and Alabama, 2 top 10 teams. Oh and
they get Clement back to carry the ball this week. Rutgers has to travel to Michigan next week,
while Wisconsin only has Maryland on deck.
All signs point to Wisconsin putting up big points on Rutgers.
Clemson (-10.5) at NC State:
Clemson is a top 10 team, no doubt about that. NC State is a middle of the pack type
team. They will take advantage of
mismatches, and pad the stats against weaker opponents, but against top flight
national championship contenders they don’t stand a chance. NC State hasn’t really played anybody this
year with 3 games against bottom 20 teams, and an FCS foe in week 2. They lost to Louisville at home, and to
Virginia Tech on the road. They
benefited in the game last week against Wake Forest because they were fresh off
a bye. Clemson is out gaining it’s
opponents by 202 yards per game, and in conference play that goes up to
286. The defense is only allowing 263
yards per game overall and in conference play it drops to 224. That’s all I’m saying on this, you get the
point, don’t believe the smoke and mirrors that is NC State. Clemson is for real.
Georgia vs Florida (-2.5) neutral site:
First I’m buying this up to 3 points. Both teams are coming into this off a
bye. Florida is still without Grier, but
Harris played well in the LSU game. The
winner of this game basically writes there own ticket for the SEC title game,
as both teams have favorable matchups in 2 remaining conference games this
year. Georgia hasn’t been an underdog in
forever, and they will want revenge after losing this game by 18 last
year. That was the largest margin of
victory in this contest in the past 5 season.
These are 2 tough teams, and I’m expecting a grind it out battle that goes
down to the wire. It’s always nice
having a few extra points in your back pocket on games like that.
Notre Dame (-11) at Temple:
Last week I went against Temple on the road against East
Carolina. I still feel that I laid out a
pretty compelling case against them. The
problem is that they were able to stop the run, and force 2 additional
turnovers. That happens sometimes. I’m going back to the well this week calling
for Temple to get it’s first loss. My
belief in the Irish this week comes from the slate of games that each team has
played. Sure Temple looks good on paper,
but who have they played really? More
importantly who have they played lately?
Their last 4 games were Charlotte, Tulane, UCF and East Carolina. Not really a bunch of headliners there. Notre Dame has faced a very difficult
schedule, at Virginia, Georgia Tech, at Clemson, USC, an underrated Navy team
and Texas and UMass. A like opponent for
each team is UMass, and they actually played them in back to back weeks. Temple traveled there while UND got them at
home. Both teams beat UMass, but ND did
it much more convincingly. Notre Dame
also has a top 20 offense this year, and will be the most potent team that
Temple has faced. Sure the Owls will be
pumped up as this is the ABC game of the week, College Gameday is in town, and
the fans are patting them all on the back all week. The problem is, Temple has never been in this
situation before. Sure it’s a program
well on it’s way, but they have not reached the top of the hill yet. This Notre Dame team is disciplined and
prepared, and deal with a circus every week.
Temple will be overwhelmed and flat.
Go Irish.
Oklahoma State (-2.5) at Texas Tech:
I’ve been a backer of this Oklahoma State team a few times
this season, and it’s paid off for me each time. I see no reason to change the script this
week. The Cowboys are a dark horse
contender to win the Big 12, but do have the hardest part of schedule coming
up. If you remember back to the
beginning of the season, I talked about how OK St. was one of the most
experienced teams returning this year, and they’ve played like a bunch of
veterans. Texas Tech is coming off of
back to back road games, and had a harder time with Kansas 2 weeks ago than
most expected. They followed that up
with a blow out loss last week at Oklahoma.
Not really trending up. Both
teams have explosive offenses, and Texas Tech probably has the slight advantage
there, but defense wins championships, and that is where Texas Tech
struggles. The Red Raiders are allowing
562 yards per game, and it’s worse in conference play at 603. OK State is only giving up 316 per game, and
slightly worse 326 in conference play.
OK State is also fresher having a bye 2 weeks ago and then letting the
back ups get plenty of action last week in the blow out of Kansas. I just don’t see a way that Texas Tech can
keep up scoring with OK State in this game.
Tennessee (-8.5) at Kentucky:
When I first saw this line I was ready to back Kentucky at
home as a dog. Then I looked at it
closer and I realized my gut was wrong.
After jumping out to a tremendous start at 4-1 with the only loss by 5
to Florida, Kentucky has dropped back to back games. Kentucky is allowing 173 rushing yards per
game, which isn’t good for them as Tennessee is averaging 209 rushing per
game. Tennessee has also played a much
more difficult schedule so far. They had
non conference games against Bowling Green (possible MAC champ), and Oklahoma,
plus they’ve played Florida, Arkansas, Georgia and Alabama in conference
action. Kentucky’s toughest opponent so
far this season has been Florida, oh and Tennessee played Florida much tougher
than Kentucky did. While Kentucky is
making great strides in turning this program around, they haven’t been tested
enough this year, and are still a year or 2 away. Tennessee is battle tested and ready to
win. Look for them to run over the
Wildcats this week.
Louisiana Monroe at Louisiana Lafayette (-11.5):
This is a battle of 2 bad teams that are located very close
to each other. The campuses are less
than 200 miles away from each other, and they play each year. Oh and the visitor has won 11 of the last 16
games played, and 7 of the last 8 games have been decided by 9 points or
less. There is nothing really exciting
to write about from a statistical perspective in this game. What I will say is this, any time you get in
state rivals, that are both not playing well and the underdog is 4-0-1 in the
last 5 meetings, you take the points.
That’s all there is to it.
Colorado at UCLA (-23):
Initially I liked UCLA in this game, but that was when they
were only favored by 20.5 points. Now
that this line has swelled to 23, I’m switching over and backing the
underdog. After going 3-1 in
non-conference games, Colorado hasn’t fared as well in conference play, but
they are getting better each week. The
lost to Oregon by 17, then at Arizona State by 25, but followed that up with a
7 point loss to Arizona and a win last week at Oregon State. UCLA bounced back nicely last week after
getting smoked by Stanford, but they had a few extra days to prepare as the
Stanford games was played during the week.
For the season UCLA is outgaining opponents by 82 yards, but only 30 in
conference play. Colorado is outgaining
opponents by 7 yards per game, but being outgained by 123 in conference play,
but most of that is because of the Oregon game than anything. In total UCLA offense is only averaging about
30 yards more per game than Colorado.
Sure they will probably perform better in this one, but enough to win by
4 scores? Take the points in this game.
Arizona at Washington (-4.5):
This game is about defense.
The strength of Washington’s versus the weakness of Arizona’s. Arizona needs to run the ball in order to be
successful, in the 3 games they were held to under 200 yards rushing they only
won 1, and that was in week 1 against UTSA.
The Huskies only allow 122 rushing yards per game. Based on the ratings that I maintain,
Washington should be closer to a touchdown favorite, and simulations have shown
that being about the margin of victory, so you get a little value with them at
this price.
Wow, that’s 13 games in total with the 4 bonus games. I thought I was heavy with 9, but fuck it,
let’s shoot for the moon.
