NFL week 3

NFL week 3.  Week 2 was not a good week for my NFL picks.  I went 0-4 last week giving me a 2 week record of 3-5.  Not good at all.  When I reviewed my stats and updated the scores in my database, I noticed that one of power rating systems went 10-6, and the rest were around 9-7 or 8-8 (2 were 8-6 as they didn’t find value in a few games).  Seeing this gives me hope.  I was unlucky enough to pick 4 losers out of a combination of results from my power ratings, even though none of them posted a losing record on the week.  Unbelievable.  The systems are working fine, it’s the picker that is a fucking loser.  This week I bring in my 5^th power rating system, which I call game expectations.  Basically what I do with this system is look at team tendencies from last year and compare to this year and to their opponent.  This helps in figuring out what the team is probably going to do.  For example, team A has had success running the ball this year and are playing team B which has struggled to stop they run.  In this instance I would enter information for team A to be more successful running the football this week than they have in the past.  Same applies for passing, turnovers and field goals.  Without further ado, here are my picks for this weeks games.

Tampa Bay at Houston (-6.5):

I went to the well with Houston last week and it cost me.  I just didn’t see the Panthers offense be able to generate enough points to win that game.  Cam Newton proved me wrong, as he continues to put that team on his back and carry them to victory.  Tampa Bay pulled off the upset of the week winning in the Superdome as a 10 point underdog.  This week I’m going back to the well with Houston.  The offense of Tampa Bay is horrible.  Sure they looked better last week, but this team is still struggling, and the NO isn’t really known for their defense.  Houston will have the best front 7 that Tampa has faced this year, I expect JJ Watt to cause havoc for the rookie QB.  I really wish Houston would run the ball more this year, like they did last year.  If they do that then they should be able to control this game.  I have Houston on a key number in 3 of my 5 systems, and I’m pulling the trigger on the Texans again this week.

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-2.5):

Cincinnati has the advantage in 4 of my 5 systems, and when those 4 systems have agreed, the results have been fabulous.  They also hit a key number in my Vegas style system, which is a very successful system.  The Ravens are simply throwing the ball to much this year.  They need to get back to controlling the clock and running the ball, and then using that nasty defense of theirs to take command.  The Bengals have a good pass defense, and should be able to hold their own.  Also, Baltimore plays next Thursday at Pittsburgh, so they might be planning for both this week. With the 2 headed monster that the Bengals have in their backfield, and the Ravens defense not looking like their old selves, I expect Cincy to control this game.  Do yourself the favor though, spend the extra $10 and buy the half point, this one will come down to the wire.

Oakland at Cleveland (-3):

Yes, Oakland won against Baltimore last week at home.  Yes, they stopped them when they needed to, but this team has been outperformed in both games.  They were outgained in yards and first downs in both games, which tells me they had some big plays last week against Baltimore that allowed them to pull the upset.  Clevelands defense has been playing exceptionally well this year, while they have had some trouble stopping the run, they have gotten a lot of pressure on the QB when he is passing.  That doesn’t bode well for a Raiders team that is throwing the ball 30 times a game and running less than 20 times a game.  The Browns have also been able to run the ball well, going for over 100 yards in both games.  This is the first road game of the season for Oakland, and they have to travel east, which is always harder than travelling west.  Cleveland is on a key number in 2 of my 5 systems, and 4 of my 5 systems find value in the Browns this week.  Look for Cleveland to start out 2-1.

San Francisco at Arizona (-6.5):

Arizona is a different team with Carson Palmer at the helm.  The offense has been clicking on all cylinders so far this year.  The defense has surprising not played at the level expected, which probably has more to do with Bowles leaving for a HC job than anything.  The personnel is still the same, so the ability is still there.  San Francisco has been running the ball a lot the first 2 games, but when they fell behind last week against Pittsburgh they had to rely on the pass, which isn’t necessarily their strong suite.  Arizona is on a key number in 2 of my 5 systems, and 3 of the systems show value in the Cardinals.  I just don’t see San Francisco being able to keep up with the Cardinals offense in scoring in this game.

Alright, there are my 4 picks for Sunday.  I do have another Monday night special to post, but we’ll put that one in it’s own blog later.  Good luck and play responsibly.