College Football Week 1 Thursday Night Value Plays

College football is back!!!  It starts with a big slate of games on Thursday night, which is going to be my focus for right now.  I’m going to talk about a few of the games that I believe represent the best opportunity to make some money.  It’s all about finding value and the below games represent value.

First up is North Carolina vs South Carolina (-2.5) on a neutral field in Charlotte.  Its obvious that South Carolina has the better team, and better depth but I like North Carolina in this game.  Last year was the first opener that South Carolina lost under Spurrier, but it was a doozy of a loss as they got smoked at home against Texas A&M as a favorite.  North Carolina has more experience with 17 returning starters compared to South Carolina’s 12, and are in the 4^th season under Fedora.  Based on my power rating system North Carolina should be the favorite at -2, but the line opened at South Carolina -3.  Since then the sharp money has come in on North Carolina and the line moved to South Carolina -2, but is currently sitting at South Carolina -2.5.  Look for the Tar Heels to pull the upset and move Spurrier to 9-2 in openers at South Carolina.

Florida International at Central Florida (-13.5):

This line is moving fast, and the value is almost gone.  My power rating system has UCF as a -10 point favorite, but the line opened UCF -17.  Since then the money has come in on FIU big time as the line currently stands at UCF -13.5.  Experience is another factor in this game as FIU has 15 returning starters compared to only 9 for UCF.  It’s easy to see UCF winning this game as they are strong at home, but I don’t think they’re going to cover this spread, especially if you can find FIU at +14.

Western Kentucky (-2) at Vanderbilt:

Last year was a struggle for Vanderbilt under first year head coach Derek Mason, who only had 10 returning starters, but this year should be better for him, especially with 18 returning starters.  It’s also the 2^nd year for WKU’s head coach Jeff Brohm and he has experience coming back as well with 16 returning starters.  My power rating system has Vanderbilt favored by 5 points (3.5 of those from home field), but the line is currently WKU -2 giving Vanderbilt a whole touchdown of value.  While WKU has the more explosive offense, Vanderbilt has the stronger defense and they should offset each other.  Look for Vanderbilt to score enough points get the win at home to open the season.

Duke (-7.5) at Tulane:

Once again I’m going to point to the experience returning as Duke only has 11 starters back from 2014 but Tulane has 16 returning starters.  Tulane also benefits from having a veteran quarterback, and they get to play at home.  My power rating system has Duke as a -4.5 point favorite, but the line is currently Duke -7.5 giving us a field goal of value.  The line actually opened at Duke -9.5, so the sharp money has come in on Tulane and moving it closer to where it should be.  Look for Tulane to keep this closer than the experts think.

There you go, 4 value plays on opening night of college football.  Make sure to check back later for coverage of the games happening over the weekend.  Remember managing your bankroll is just as important as doing your homework and finding the right games to bet on.