College football week 4 Saturday

College football week 4 Saturday.  Wow, it’s Saturday again already.  How fast this week went by.  Perhaps it was because I spent a bunch of extra time going over football games, or the fact that the Pope was in Philly and I fled the city for safer grounds in the middle of the week.  Either way, it’s been a pretty fast week.  There are 52 lined college football games this weekend, or at least based on my information.  My computer originally found 19 of those games that it found value in.  I then went through all 52, and really concentrated on those 19 my computer liked, and narrowed it down to 7 games that I believe give us the best opportunity for making some money this week.  You will notice a trend develop in my picks, which is really based on running the ball against defenses that have struggled to stop they run.  So without further ado, here are my picks for this week.

BYU at Michigan (-6.5)

BYU has been on a tear so far this year.  They have played every team really tought, and won the first 2 games in the final minutes of each.  They took UCLA to the wire last week, and actually had a chance to pull out the victory.  After the performance BYU put forth in the first 2 games no one gave them a chance against UCLA, but they held in there and took them to the wire.  Michigan has returned to the U of M that we all grew up with.  Running the ball and playing defense.  The way that they have performed on defense this year, and the fact that its back to back road games for BYU I was very hesitant to pull the trigger on this pick.  Anyways, my rating have Michigan rated 0.1 better than BYU, so home field is really the only way this gets to the current level.  Do yourself the favor and buy the extra half point to get BYU +7, in case it doesn’t go that way on it’s own.  The line is moving going from -5.5 to -6.5 for Michigan, and they are the more public team, so a good chance it gets there on its own.

Virginia Tech (-8.5) at East Carolina:

Okay, this line is really really light.  The Hokies are 2-1 and coming off back to back blow out victories.  East Carolina is 1-2 and followed up a competitive road game against Florida in the swamp, they laid a stinker on the road against Navy.  East Carolina is giving up 254 yards rushing per game, and Virginia Tech is averaging 222 rushing yards a game, so look for the Hokies to run all over the pirates.  My computer calls for VT to be a -16 point favorite, so at this level it’s a great price. 

San Diego State at Penn State (-15):

After a tough opener to the season against Temple, Penn State has played like the team expected this year.  SDSU has not left the state of California all year so far, and traveling east is never easy to do.  Penn State is averaging 200 yards rushing per week, and SDSU has allowed around 200 yard average over the past 2 games, so Penn State should be able to run their way to easy victory this week.  My system actually says Penn State should be favored by 3 touchdowns, and simulations have them winning by 17, so get on this game quick as it could move away from value.

Maryland at West Virginia (-17):

I was against Maryland last week with USF, and it didn’t work out as they went with a new QB and he threw for 4 td’s.  Unexpected.  This is the first road game for Maryland this year, and they have to go to WVU, which is a very tough place to play.  My computer says that WVU should be a 3 td favorite at the minimum and probably closer to -24.  West Virginia is also rested, coming off a bye, but do have a big game on deck with a trip to Norman to face Oklahoma next week.  Maryland returns home next week to face Michigan, so it’s not like either team has an easy game on deck.  Marylands rush defense has been absolutely atrocious this year, giving up 200+ yards in each of the past 2 against Bowling Green and USF.  I know I’ve said this a couple times already this blog, but look for WVU to run all over this team and bring home a huge victory.

Vanderbilt at Mississippi (-24.5)

First of all, buy this down to -24.  A lot of people are saying this is a let down game for Ole Miss, especially with a trip to Florida on deck.  But, you could’ve said the same thing about the game versus Fresno State in week 2 as they had a road trip to Alabama on deck, and they put up 73 points on them.  This Ole Miss defense is lights out.  Vanderbilt has thrown the ball well this year, but that’s partially inflated with the huge numbers they put up last week against FCS foe Austin Peay.  Ole Miss finally had their potent run game slowed last week against Alabama, but they were able to throw the ball all over the place, and they are still averaging 567 yards of offense per game.  Vanderbilt defense has played respectable, and they kept it close against Georgia, but that was at home.  This is their first road game of the season, and I don’t expect a warm greeting from the folks down in Mississippi.  Look for the Rebels to win big at home.

New Mexico (-3.5) at Wyoming:

Even though I don’t think you’re going to need it, spend the extra $10 and buy the half point to get this down to -3.  Then watch your money coming in.  I went against Wyoming with Easter Michigan as a 13 point dog in week 2, and EMU won the game outright on the road.  I actually have New Mexico rated about 10 points better than Wyoming on a neutral site, so after giving Wyoming a few points for home field, this should be more around NMU -7 than -3 or -3.5.  The fact that you only have to lay a field goal against a shitty team is pretty awesome.  Lets go back to that EMU at Wyoming game for a minute.  EMU rushed for 430 yards in that game.  That’s a lot.  Did you know that New Mexico is averaging 256 rushing yards a game?  And that include 184 yards last week on the road against Arizona State.  So it’s not like they are just running against FCS opponents.  Look for NMU to run run run their way to a huge road win.  Yes, I did say that again.  Are you starting to notice a pattern developing?

North Carolina State (-17) at South Alabama:

Okay, in case you haven’t caught on to my point of emphasis this week, let me give you a few more numbers.  NC State has rushed for 251, 199 and 256 yards in their first 3 games this season.  South Alabama has given up 177, 258 and 140 yards in their first 3 games.  Do you think that NC State will be able to run on this South Alabama team?  I do.  In fact I think this line is about a touchdown light as my computer says that NC State should be -24, even after giving South Alabama a few point for home field.  Now lets flip the script and look at NC State defense, who is giving up only 51 rushing yards per game, and 137 passing yards a game, for less than 200 yards of total offense.  That is tremendous.  Especially last week, when I backed Old Dominion against this NC State team.  ODU could get nothing going offensively and NC State ran away with the game.  Look for them to do the same this week.

There you go, 7 games.  I hope they turn out better than last week.  Good luck in all of your future endeavors.