College Football week 1 Weekend Games

Here we go with the final installment of week 1 of college football.  In this post I’m going to outline the value games that are happening over the weekend.  Slim pickings out there, but I found 5 value plays for you to take advantage of.  Opening night on Thursday wasn’t very friendly to us, finishing the night 1-2-1.  If you were able to get Vandy at +2.5 instead of +2 in the post you would’ve went 2-2, but if you got them at +1.5 then stuck at 1-3.  However, I’m recording based on line used in post so official record is 1-2-1.  The play of Charlotte for Friday is currently in progress, and so far looking good, knock on wood.  Enough with that, on to the games.

Louisiana Monroe @ Georgia -35:

Basically this pick is based on one thing, running the football.  Georgia might have the best run game in the country this year, and they will look to unleash their stable of backs in this game.  In terms of experience, ULM has 14 returning starters, but Georgia only has 13.  Last year ULM lost at LSU 31-0, but that was against a much weaker offense at LSU than this Georgia team, and it was an in state team, so more heated blood.  My power rating system has Georgia as a -39.5 point favorite, so get 4.5 points of value here. 

UTEP @ Arkansas -33:

Speaking of running the ball.  If Georgia doesn’t have the best run game in the country than Arkansas does.  On top of the UTEP only has 10 returning starters, and this experienced team will be taken to the wood shed by the Hogs offensive line.  Arkansas has 15 returning starters, and they’re bringing back not 1 but 2 1,000+ yard rushers from last year.  My system says that Arkansas is more like a -37 point favorite, so plenty of value to be had here.

New Mexico St @ Florida -35.5:

I know what you’re thinking, laying a bunch of chalk this week huh, nope this time we’re taking the points.  That’s right New Mexico St is the play.  Florida only has 11 returning starters, and they are breaking in a new head coach.  This is also an offense that struggled at times last year to put up points, and they are supposed to lay 36 to cover?  I don’t think so.  NMST’s head coach is entering his 3^rd year, which is usually the money year for a team to turn the corner.  Add in the fact that they have 18 returning starters this year, and it sounds even better as these guys are accustomed to his scheme and were probably recruited by him.  My system says that Florida should only be a -30 point favorite, and that includes 4.5 points for being at home. 

Mississippi St -21 @ Southern Miss:

Here is another dog that has caught my attention.  This isn’t the same Mississippi St team as last year.  Mississippi St is only returning 7 starters, and they could get caught looking ahead to a game against LSU.  Meanwhile Southern Miss has 15 returning starters, and they get to play at home.  I’m only getting to Mississippi St -16.5, so at -21 you get 4.5 points of value.  As an added bonus, those 15 retuning starters for Southern Miss will want some payback for the beat down Miss St put on them last year.  Look for them to keep it close.

Ohio State -14 at Virginia Tech:

This line is steaming on Ohio State.  It opened at OSU -11, which is a lot of points to be laying on the road, in Blacksburg.  First lets look at the suspensions that OSU will have, 5 key players, including possibly best DE in college.  While OSU does have one of the best RBs in the country, they are surely lacking in experience at the WR position.  Finally, this might be one of the best defenses in VT history.  Add an electric crowd to the mix and this VT team will be fired up.  Virginia Tech also has 16 returning starters, so you get a little bit of experience to add in on top of it all.  There is no conceivable way that OSU should be favored by more than 10 points.  Consider anything over 10 points value.  The way this line has been moving, I would expect it to keep going.  Plus this game is on Monday night, so still plenty of time for it to move.  I’m thinking of putting a little down now on the +14, just in case there is some pull back.  If I can keep getting points, then I’m going to hit it again, and again, and again.  You get the picture.

Thanks for stopping by.  Good luck if you choose to use this information for anything.  If you like what I’m doing, tell you friends.  If you don’t like what I have to say, tell your enemy, I don’t care just tell someone.