NFL Week 3 Monday Night Chaser

It was a good Sunday, with the picks I released yesterday going 4-1.  I even said that I had a pick for tonights Monday game between Kansas City and Green Bay.  Depending on what happens with the line, I might take some action on this game, but if it doesn’t hit the number that I want then I’m going to sit it out and count my cash from this weekend. 

Last week, in a Thursday night game, Kansas City fell apart against Denver.  When they held onto the ball, they used it very well and moved down the field.  But they couldn’t hold on to the ball, having 3 fumbles and 2 interceptions.  That’s more of a testament to the skill of Denver’s defense than it is a case against Kansas City though, just ask Detroit and Baltimore, who are 2 other victims of that Denver defense.  Hell I even used Denver’s defense in my Draft Kings lineup this weekend, and they didn’t let me down.

Green Bay has been a bit sluggish on offense so far this year, with the passing attack not as explosive as seasons past. Green Bay is only averaging 341 yards of offense per game, while their defense is giving up 363 yards a game.  That’s not typical for a 2-0 team.  They struggled to slow down the Bears offense, which was a one man wrecking crew of Matt Forte.  They got some help last week against Seattle getting an interception and a fumble recovery. 

Kansas City has a few extra days of rest after playing last Thursday, while Green Bay was the Sunday night game against Seattle.  That was definitely a game they had circled for a long time, and perhaps were looking ahead to when playing Chicago.  They wanted revenge on the Seahawks for the way they’ve been beaten the last couple of years by that team, so they were definitely up for that game.  It will be hard for them to match that intensity. 

In reviewing the results from my 5 different rating systems, it’s a mixed bag.  All 5 of the systems find value in Packers, but 3 of those end up being key numbers for the Chiefs.  Yes, that sounds fucked up, but sometimes teams can be overvalued based on historical performance, and when that happens they don’t have success ATS.  I believe that is the situation here, Green Bay is overvalued.  Add in the factors that are favoring Kansas City and this looks like a no brainer.  The line has been moving around, but Green Bay is a very public team and I expect more money to roll in on them moving the line further in our favor.  I currently see Kansas City (+6.5) at even money.  This tells me that Vegas doesn’t want to put it at a touchdown for a reason and are starting to play with the money to entice action on Kansas City.  I think you will see +7 closer to game time, but that’s what the wise guys are waiting for too, so it might not last long.  Just buy the half point now, it’s already discounted without juice on the team.