NFL week 2. Week 1
went well for me, going 3-1. Week 2
represents a new set of challenges though.
First, I’m running behind. It’s
been a busy week, and things got away from me.
No excuse. Second, there really
isn’t a lot of great value to be had this week.
Some games are good, others are not.
But there are 4 games that are better than the rest and those are the
games I’m going with.
Houston at Carolina (-3):
Carolina defense won the game for them last week, while
Houston defense didn’t get the memo for when the game was supposed to
start. The Chiefs moved the ball on them
easily, and it wasn’t until they pulled Hoyer for Mallet that they got a couple
of late touchdowns. Carolina offense was
all run, as they continue to look for a WR to step up. They will rely heavily on the tight end
again. Houston defense is better than it
played last week, and is a lot better than Jacksonville defense Carolina faced
last week. Carolina defense proved that
it is still a force, and without Foster, Houston might again struggle to move
the ball. But I think Mallet will be
better for this team, and they will have more success in moving the ball than
they did last week. Out of the 4 ratings
systems I’m using this week Houston hits a key number in 2 of them. Carolina does hit a key number in a 3rd
system, but that’s based on past 3 and swayed by them having an effective
passing game. I’m going with Houston and
the points as this should be a defensive struggle, and I think it will be a
close one.
Baltimore (-6.5) at Oakland:
Last week Baltimore couldn’t get the offense going, but the
defense was phenominal in holding the Broncos explosive offense to minimal
points. They really applied the bend don’t
break policy and held Denver to a lot of field goals. Even then they had a chance to win the game
late. An added benefit is that they
stayed on the west coast for practice this week instead of hopping back and
forth across the country. Oakland looked
like Oakland. I was really expecting a
better showing last week. This defense
could be just what Baltimore needs to get going this week, and if the defense
plays anything like it did last week, then Oakland will struggle to move the
ball. Baltimore hits a key number in 2
of my 4 systems. Look for Baltimore to
head home 1-1 with a big win here.
Miami (-5.5) at Jacksonville:
Okay, so Miami got a little lucky last week at Washington,
trailing 10-0, they rallied for the 17-10 win, and the cover, but it was
scary. Jacksonville’s failures to
protect the QB last year were on display against Carolina last week. Miami defense should be able to get to the QB
this week as they might have the best d-line in the league. Strong d-line versus weak o-line equals long
day for Jacksonville QB. Miami should be
more explosive on offense this week. They
hit a key number in 2 of the 4 systems I’m using, so I’m going to back them
again this week on the road versus an inferior team.
Seattle at Green Bay (-3):
Well nobody saw that upset coming last week when the Rams
beat Seattle. Shouldn’t have been that
big of a surprise though. Seattle lost
last year in St. Louis and Fischer always gets his team up for division
games. Seattle’s offense struggled to
get the run game going, but that’s probably more because St. Louis has a strong
front 7 and is built to stop the run.
Green Bay offense wasn’t as explosive against the Bears last week on the
road than initially thought. They were
out gained by 80 yards, but managed to get 1 more turnover. This line is right where it should be, but I
have 1 system hitting a key number for Seattle.
I just don’t see the Packers blowing this team out, look for a close one
at Lambeau.
So those are my 4 picks for this week. There are other games out there that could be
good, and that I like at first look. New
England +1 at Buffalo, Detroit +2 at Minnesota and Arizona -2 at Chicago. I like those 3 teams as well, but my systems
don’t agree with me, so I’m staying away because there might be something I’m
missing. Good luck this week.
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