Sunday, September 20, 2015

NFL week 2

NFL week 2.  Week 1 went well for me, going 3-1.  Week 2 represents a new set of challenges though.  First, I’m running behind.  It’s been a busy week, and things got away from me.  No excuse.  Second, there really isn’t a lot of great value to be had this week.  Some games are good, others are not.  But there are 4 games that are better than the rest and those are the games I’m going with. 

Houston at Carolina (-3):
Carolina defense won the game for them last week, while Houston defense didn’t get the memo for when the game was supposed to start.  The Chiefs moved the ball on them easily, and it wasn’t until they pulled Hoyer for Mallet that they got a couple of late touchdowns.  Carolina offense was all run, as they continue to look for a WR to step up.  They will rely heavily on the tight end again.  Houston defense is better than it played last week, and is a lot better than Jacksonville defense Carolina faced last week.  Carolina defense proved that it is still a force, and without Foster, Houston might again struggle to move the ball.  But I think Mallet will be better for this team, and they will have more success in moving the ball than they did last week.  Out of the 4 ratings systems I’m using this week Houston hits a key number in 2 of them.  Carolina does hit a key number in a 3rd system, but that’s based on past 3 and swayed by them having an effective passing game.  I’m going with Houston and the points as this should be a defensive struggle, and I think it will be a close one.

Baltimore (-6.5) at Oakland:
Last week Baltimore couldn’t get the offense going, but the defense was phenominal in holding the Broncos explosive offense to minimal points.  They really applied the bend don’t break policy and held Denver to a lot of field goals.  Even then they had a chance to win the game late.  An added benefit is that they stayed on the west coast for practice this week instead of hopping back and forth across the country.  Oakland looked like Oakland.  I was really expecting a better showing last week.  This defense could be just what Baltimore needs to get going this week, and if the defense plays anything like it did last week, then Oakland will struggle to move the ball.  Baltimore hits a key number in 2 of my 4 systems.  Look for Baltimore to head home 1-1 with a big win here.

Miami (-5.5) at Jacksonville:
Okay, so Miami got a little lucky last week at Washington, trailing 10-0, they rallied for the 17-10 win, and the cover, but it was scary.  Jacksonville’s failures to protect the QB last year were on display against Carolina last week.  Miami defense should be able to get to the QB this week as they might have the best d-line in the league.  Strong d-line versus weak o-line equals long day for Jacksonville QB.  Miami should be more explosive on offense this week.  They hit a key number in 2 of the 4 systems I’m using, so I’m going to back them again this week on the road versus an inferior team.

Seattle at Green Bay (-3):
Well nobody saw that upset coming last week when the Rams beat Seattle.  Shouldn’t have been that big of a surprise though.  Seattle lost last year in St. Louis and Fischer always gets his team up for division games.  Seattle’s offense struggled to get the run game going, but that’s probably more because St. Louis has a strong front 7 and is built to stop the run.  Green Bay offense wasn’t as explosive against the Bears last week on the road than initially thought.  They were out gained by 80 yards, but managed to get 1 more turnover.  This line is right where it should be, but I have 1 system hitting a key number for Seattle.  I just don’t see the Packers blowing this team out, look for a close one at Lambeau.

So those are my 4 picks for this week.  There are other games out there that could be good, and that I like at first look.  New England +1 at Buffalo, Detroit +2 at Minnesota and Arizona -2 at Chicago.  I like those 3 teams as well, but my systems don’t agree with me, so I’m staying away because there might be something I’m missing.  Good luck this week.





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