It’s back to a regular football weekend with a full slate of
games on Saturday. I went through them
all and found 10 that I believe give you the most value and best opportunity to
win. Good luck this week if you choose
to participate in extra curricular activities.
Ball State @ Texas A&M (-29.5):
Can A&M win by 5 touchdowns? Last week A&M put up 425 yards on Arizona
State, a ranked team, while allowing 291 yards.
Ball State hosted VMI last week, and they had a monstrous day on
offense, but why shouldn’t they, it was fucking VMI! The important stat to note from that game
though is the yards VMI put up. They had
547 yards, with 444 coming through the air.
Really Ball State? If VMI can
throw for 444 against this defense, then Kyle Allen might set a single game
record for passing yards. The system
says Texas A&M should be -34.5, so getting lots of value here.
Central Florida @ Stanford (-18.5):
Both teams were upset last week. Stanford had nothing going for them
offensively being held to just 240 total yards by an underrated Northwestern
team. UCF was upset at home by FIU last
week. The difference between the two is
Stanford gets to play at home, while UCF has to travel across country and play
in a tough battle. That isn’t easy to
do. UCF gave up 390 yards to FIU last
week, while Stanford held Northwestern to 230.
The computer says that Stanford should be about -23 to -24 point
favorite, giving us lots of value. Look
for Hogan to bounce back this week and put up big numbers on UCF.
Rice @ Texas (-14):
Man did Texas get is ass handed to them last week or
what. Embarrassed in every facet of the
game. Fortunately for them they get to
host Rice this week, a team that has been the proverbial punching bag for Texas
the last few years. This line is low
only because of last weeks result for Texas.
The last 5 matchups Texas was favored at a minimum of -24.5. If this was a bowl game on a neutral site and
you saw Texas -14 wouldn’t that look like a beautiful line? Of course it would. The computer agrees giving 5 points of value
with Texas at -14.
Washington State @ Rutgers (-3.5)
Washington State couldn’t get its vaunted passing attack
going last week playing in a down pour.
This week will be different for them.
Unfortunately, they have to come all the way across country to the east
coast and face a Rutgers offense that is just as potent. This could be a high flying affair. The system gives a line of Rutgers -9, so at
current levels you get about 5.5 points of value. I think Rutgers gets the last touchdown and
the win and the cover.
San Diego State @ California (-14)
California is one of the more experienced teams this year,
but had a freshman starting at quarterback, which always gives you pause to
invest. However, this kid was lights out
throwing for over 300 yards and 3 tds.
SDSU hosted FCS city rival San Diego and won 37-3, but that’s a
misleading score as SDSU was only able to manage 300 yards of total
offense. The score was bloated by 2 SDSU
pick sixes. The projections say Cal
should be closer to a 3 td favorite than only 2. The sharps have already beaten this line up
pretty good, but still plenty of value left.
Boise State (-2.5) @ BYU:
The key to this game is home team, as the home team has won
the last 4 meetings. Boise State tried
to blow the game against one of the least experienced teams in the nation this
year against Washington. Sure UW
benefited from their HC coming over from BSU, but Boise is a hard place to go
play. BYU pulled the upset on the road
against Nebraska with a hail mary to win the game. The projections actually have BYU as the
favorite at -2, which is flip of the current line. Oh and Boise State is starting a freshman
quarterback making his first road start in a hostile environment. Obviously if you can get +3 that would be much
better.
Oregon State @ Michigan (-14.5):
Michigan played admirably last week at Utah. They had chances, but shot themselves in the
foot one to many times. Oregon State on
the other hand played at home against Weber State, and only won by 26-7. The computer says Michigan should be -21.5 or
just call it 3 touchdowns. You get Jim
Harbaugh making his home debut, 100,000+ screaming fans, and a couple extra
days to prepare. Michigan will clean up
the turnovers, feed off the crowd and make a statement.
Eastern Michigan @ Wyoming (-13.5):
This line just doesn’t make any sense. I have these 2 teams rated almost identical
to each other. Its remnants of last
weeks Charlotte at Georgia State game.
Sure Wyoming isn’t the easiest destination, and there is the altitude
there, but that doesn’t account for 13 points.
Throw in the fact Wyoming lost to FCS North Dakota last week, and only
managed 80 total yards of offense.
80! Eastern had over 440 yards of
offense. Perhaps its because Eastern didn’t
travel well last year, but still they weren’t playing any Wyomings.
Fresno State @ Mississippi (-30):
Every time I blinked last Saturday I felt they were showing
Ole Miss scoring another touchdown. This
offense is absolutely explosive. And
they get to hose a defense traveling from the west coast to the hot humid
south. This game is about 9 points shy
of where it could be. It’s deflated in
case Ole Miss gets out to big early lead and coast down the stretch since they
play at Alabama next week. I don’t think
they will take the pedal off the metal at all.
Fresno State will be facing the best defense they will see all
year. They warmed up at home against
Abilene Christian. Not exactly great
preparation for going to Mississippi, playing a nasty defense, potent offense
and a raucous crowd. This has the recipe
for disaster.
East Carolina @ Florida (-20.5)
Last week I didn’t believe in Florida offense, and took the
points with New Mexico State. The gators
bit our dick off for doing that. So I’m
flipping allegiance. I’m going to throw
my weight behind this team. ECU struggled
last week at home against Towson, an FCS team, only winning 28-20. They only outgained them by like 20 yards,
with Towson racking up more that 400 yards of offense. Take that leaky defense, put them in the
swamp against that offense from last week and I see the score board
continuously ticking upwards. The
Florida defense was way better than I expected, and they get an inexperience
juco transfer coming to town. Gators roll
big.
There are 10 games for Saturday. If you don’t like them then check out the
game matchups blog and pick out your own games.
The game matchups can be
found here.
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